Russia's bomber losses jeopardize missile attacks on Ukraine

Operation "Spider web" targeted Russian strategic bombers located thousands of miles from Ukraine. It ended with the destruction of over 10 aircraft, based on visual confirmations from two airfields.

The situation was addressed on Telegram by Russian military blogger Fighterbomber, who states that even the loss of one aircraft is a burden for Russia due to its inability to produce new ones. It appears the damaged aircraft make up 34% of the fleet that carries Kh-101 cruise missiles.

It's important to note that some of the damaged aircraft may be repaired, but it will take months. These missiles are particularly dangerous for Ukrainians, especially when used in conjunction with Shahed drones, which serve as decoys against Ukrainian air defense systems.

The loss of at least 12 Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 aircraft presents a significant problem for Russia because only these planes can carry Kh-101 cruise missiles in large numbers. They, alongside Iskander-M ballistic missiles, are crucial for precisely striking targets on the Ukrainian side.

These targets may include energy infrastructure, meetings of Ukrainian commanders, training centers, or even acts of terror against civilians. An example of the latter is the attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv in July 2024.

The primary workhorse of Russian strategic aviation is the Tu-95MS aircraft, a modernized variant of the Tu-95, which entered service in 1956. This version includes the capability to launch cruise missiles, carried in a revolver launcher in the bomb bay and up to eight underwing pylons.

Russia officially had between 45 to 60 of these aircraft, but recent reports suggest that only a dozen are currently active. This number includes about 50 Tu-22M3 bombers.

It's important to note that not all aircraft are available for service at any given time, with a typical readiness standard around 70%. In Russia's case, this number is likely lower due to issues with access to modern components and the heavy toll of wartime attrition.

There are virtually no replacements for these aircraft, which have not been produced since the 1990s. Theoretically, Su-34 aircraft could perform similar tasks, capable of carrying a 5,500-pound cruise missile. However, they typically carry only one missile, similar to FAB-3000 bombs.

In contrast, Tu-95MS bombers can carry eight Kh-101 missiles under the wings, not counting the internal launchers. Additionally, using tactical Su-34 bombers would require shifting logistics to support missile attacks closer to the front.

The Kh-101 missiles are an advanced version of the Russian Kh-55 missile from the 1990s, initially designed to carry nuclear warheads. The newer version features a conventional warhead weighing approximately 1,058 pounds. Its design also reduces radar signature and incorporates a modern guidance system.

This system includes inertial and satellite navigation, along with Otblesk-U, which uses a camera to track the terrain. The camera's image is compared to a digital map, enabling precise hits even in challenging navigational conditions.

As a result, the missile can deliver a fragmentation or cluster warhead to its target. The Kh-101 has a range of up to 2,800 miles, allowing it to strike targets in Ukraine from unexpected directions. At times, missiles have approached from the direction of Romania or Poland, where Ukrainian air defense is less dense.

Typically launched from Tu-95 strategic bombers, the Kh-101 flies at low altitude at speeds just below Mach 1 (761 mph). This makes them relatively easy targets for German self-propelled Gepard guns and soldiers equipped with FIM-92 Stinger systems. Unfortunately, comprehensive air defense is unattainable along the entire front line, allowing some missiles to breach defenses.