Ukraine's advance into Kursk raises specter of massive Russian retaliation

According to analysts, the Ukrainian offensive towards the Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation could lead to a massive bombardment targeting Ukraine. Kostiantyn Kryvolap, an expert associated with the aviation industry, discussed in an interview with the Ukrainian station Channel 24 the number of airplanes Russia has at its disposal and the number of missiles it can launch.

The Ukrainian advance towards the Kursk Oblast is proceeding according to plan, with the defenders occupying more areas of the Russian Federation. The Russians are responding by bombarding their own territory with powerful Iskander missiles, which are intended to hit Ukrainian positions. However, this approach has proven ineffective, prompting Moscow to request assistance from Belarus urgently. Belarus agreed to the request and has sent military equipment that is still in service.

Western analysts suspect that the Russian Federation might retaliate by bombarding Ukraine with hundreds of missiles and drones. However, Konstantyn Kryvolap tempers expectations and points out that the possibility of a massive bombardment must be carefully analyzed.

"The Russians cannot physically send more than 500-550 Shahed drones in a month," notes the expert. As for the missiles, Kryvolap calculates the number of airplanes capable of carrying them in Russia's arsenal. In his opinion, the Russians currently have 12-13 Tu-95 bombers, which means they can carry a maximum of 26 Kh-22 missiles simultaneously (each weighing nearly 13,000 lbs). "Yes, this is a scheme; these missiles simply break the wings," adds Kryvolap, emphasizing that if Russia wants to operate without Tu-95 bombers, they must add 3-4 more missiles.

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"There is also the Tu-22M3. There are 27 of them, but let's deduct 30 percent, which leaves about 18 machines capable of launching Kh-22 missiles. I don't recall a single instance where the Russians could equip more than two such missiles," Kryvolap said. The expert notes that he is not entirely sure whether Russia will decide on a massive bombardment when they "have other matters to attend to." He also emphasizes that if Russia wants to hit a specific target, they use Iskanders or Korean KN-23s.

Kryvolap mentions the 1980s Tu-95 airplanes. These bombers can carry weapons with a total weight of up to 44,000 lbs. Four Kuznetsov KN12 turboprops propel them to a speed of 515 mph. Their maximum range (without air refueling) reaches 6,525 miles.

On the other hand, the Tu-22M3, the other bombers mentioned by the expert, are newer units powered by two jet engines. These propel the aircraft to speeds of 1,429 mph, and the latest variant ("M3") can cover a distance of 4,351 miles. The aircraft can carry rockets and bombs with a total mass not exceeding 53,000 lbs.