Ukraine's missile advancements to challenge Russia by 2025
Ukraine may achieve a power balance with Russia in 2025 regarding long-range strikes. Here is what the new year might bring to Ukraine.
In 2025, Ukraine plans to make significant progress in producing various types of missiles, including ballistic ones. Mikhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, highlights in a conversation with the Unian portal that the serial production of Ukrainian operational-tactical ballistic missiles will be crucial.
The expert notes that by the end of 2024, Ukraine had made progress in several areas, including producing new cruise missiles. Samus recalls that in 2024, Ukraine dramatically increased the production of drones, which no longer surprises anyone.
"We need to produce thousands of missiles not only to match Russia but also to surpass it in missile strikes on key targets, primarily military but also economic." The expert believes that Ukraine will achieve sufficient serial production of ballistic missiles, making it a leader in Europe.
Ukraine's enormous potential
The Ukrainian industry used to be one of the key suppliers of ballistic missiles during the USSR era, and this knowledge has remained. Until recently, Ukraine's capabilities were limited by the Missile Technology Control Regime, restricting the range to 310 miles.
Currently, Ukraine can design and produce missiles with a range of up to 1,243 miles, posing a challenge for Russia. Samus emphasizes that the Russian S-400 system struggles to intercept such targets. "If we can overcome technological and financial barriers, we will create a serial medium-range ballistic missile. For Russia, this means the need to end the war as Ukraine will be able to strike targets all the way to the Ural Mountains."
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that in 2025 Ukraine will increase its war production, planning to produce at least 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 cruise and drone missiles, including the new "Neptune" missiles. In 2024, Ukraine exceeded the production of the first 100 units.
International context
Since 2014, Ukrainians have been working intensively on a successor to the Soviet Tochka-U systems. The result was the Grom/Grom-2 system, which had its first launch in 2018, and the tests were expected to be completed by 2024.
Before the outbreak of the full-scale war, Ukraine was to build a prototype battery of the Grom-2 system, consisting of two launchers and command vehicles. It was supposed to be used to strike the Russian Saky airbase in Crimea in 2022, long before gaining access to MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles from the USA.
It seems that Ukrainians have completed the development stage, and by 2025, a dozen or perhaps several dozen ballistic missiles might be added to the arsenal, allowing Ukraine to operate independently of the USA. Contrary to appearances, even such a small number can significantly impact military operations.
Grom-2 ballistic missiles
Details regarding the Grom and Grom-2 missiles remain a secret, but earlier information suggested the development of an export version for Saudi Arabia. It was supposed to take the form of a ballistic missile with a 1,058-pound warhead and a maximum range of 186 miles, compliant with the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) limitations.
For its own needs, unrestrained by the MTCR, Ukrainians likely aimed to create a missile with a range of about 310 miles, similar to the Russian Iskander-M. The guidance system likely also relies on a combination of inertial and satellite navigation, similar to foreign competitive systems.
Even though this solution might be vulnerable to GPS signal interference, a missile designed with a 1,102-pound warhead in both high-explosive and cluster versions would possess such destructive power that even a small deviation from the target would not be an issue.
The Grom-2 missiles could be a key means of destroying Russian airbases located about 310 miles from the front line. The effectiveness of ballistic missiles stems from their flight speed of around Mach 7 (5,370 mph), enabling them to reach the target in just a few minutes.
This allows no time for evacuating the threatened object compared to drone swarms, which move at just over 75 mph. In their case, the Russians had up to an hour to react from detection to strike. Ballistic missiles minimize this time to a minimum, and defending against them is challenging and costly. It's worth noting that even Israel, with the best anti-ballistic defense in the world, could not intercept all Iranian ballistic missiles.
