France eyes new ballistic missile capabilities amid global arms race

France is "exploring the possibility" of developing its ballistic missile with a range exceeding 620 miles, as reported by the French magazine "Challenges." Although no specifics about the progression of French efforts have been revealed, Paris has previously assessed options like the American HIMARS system and the Indian Pinaka, looking for a successor to the currently used M270 MLRS multiple rocket launchers.

According to Milmag, on October 30, François Cormier-Bouligeon from the pro-presidential Ensemble for the Republic coalition stated in the National Assembly, citing experiences from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, that "(…) long-range strike capabilities, such as land-based ballistic missiles, constitute a strategic weapon for our adversaries."

France's endeavors, which, apart from intercontinental strategic missiles with nuclear warheads, do not currently include conventional short-range ballistic weapons, fit into a larger trend: a weapon type almost eliminated by past disarmament treaties is coming back into favor.

There is increasing interest in both ballistic missiles, which operate only during launch, and cruise missiles, powered throughout their flight path.

Evidence includes a letter of intent signed during the NATO summit in Washington by Poland, France, Germany, and Italy to work on "long-range precision strike capabilities." The push by more countries to acquire or regain the ability to hit targets over 620 miles away is becoming a reality.

This also concerns the United States, which, despite having ATACMS missiles, is developing Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) with a greater estimated range of around 435 miles.

South Korea is also expanding its long-range arsenal, working on domestic armament with a focus on creating capabilities for deploying combat warheads typical of a nation-building nuclear triad.

South Korea already has land-based ballistic missiles (like Hyunmu-5) and sea-launched ballistic missiles (Hyunmoo 4 on KSS-III submarines), maritime cruise missiles Chonryong, and is actively working on long-range aerial weapons. The only distinction between South Korea and a nuclear power is that its weapons currently have conventional warheads.

In the context of Korean arms development, it's notable that Poland, in declaring requirements for the Orka submarine acquisition program, assumes the need for vessels capable of carrying cruise or ballistic missiles with long ranges.

The American Pershing ballistic missiles were a Cold War symbol. Equipped with nuclear warheads, they had a range of about 435 miles, and later, in the Pershing II variant, up to 1120 miles. In the 1980s, they were intended to provide NATO the ability to destroy not only major cities and industrial centers but also the opponent's troops, logistical support, and communication nodes.

The Soviet Union had similar weapons deployed in satellite countries. The ballistic missile arsenal was complemented by cruise missiles like the BGM-109G Gryphon, a land-based version of the Tomahawk missile, and short-range ballistic missiles like the American MGM-52 Lance and the French Pluton.

This arsenal was dismantled due to the INF Treaty, and the relaxation accompanying the end of the Cold War led the West to abandon ballistic weapons with ranges up to 310 miles.

The informal Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) also limited the range of weapons available on the international market; therefore, the export versions of many weapons specify ranges just under 185 miles.

While NATO countries eliminated their capabilities, the rest of the world rapidly advanced technologically. Consequently, countries like China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran now possess significant and growing arsenals of ballistic missiles across various classes: from short-range to medium and intermediate-range to intercontinental missiles.

Israel has recently experienced the threat posed by such arsenals. The October 2024 Iranian attack on Israel, often hailed as a success of the Israeli defense system, wrongly equated with the Iron Dome (which is only the lowest layer of defense), provides grounds for concern in Jerusalem.

The effectiveness of Israel's defense, supported by significant US forces in the region, reached 96 percent. However, four percent of missiles—at least a few—hit their targets. During the Iranian attack in April, several ballistic missiles also made contact. They didn't inflict major damage solely because they carried conventional warheads.