Rylsk explosion: Russian bomb mishap, not Ukrainian attack
In Rylsk, a powerful explosion resulted in the deaths of six Russians and many injuries. The Russians are blaming the Ukrainians, but the reality may be different. Here's what might have happened in Rylsk.
Russians accuse Ukrainians of attacking the Rylsk center with an M142 HIMARS launcher using GMLRS rockets or MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles. However, photographs and recordings from the strike site show a crater too large for a GMLRS rocket warhead or improbable with MGM-140 ATACMS missiles with a cluster warhead. Ukrainian expert Oleksandr Kovalenko noted this in an article in the Unian agency.
Kovalenko suggests that the Russians most likely lost control of an FAB aircraft bomb weighing about 550 pounds. This wouldn't be the first incident, as several such bombs with UMPK modules have also fallen on Russian territory, including in Belgorod and surrounding areas.
FAB bombs with UMPK module
FAB bombs with UMPK (Unified Set of Planning and Correction Modules) modules are currently among the most effective Russian weapons against Ukraine. They are essentially similar to JDAM-ER modules, transforming an old unguided, free-falling aircraft bomb into a precision weapon with enormous destructive power.
Initially, the Russians used stockpiles from the USSR, but they have recently resumed producing new units. The process involves adding a section to the bomb with guidance based on a combination of inertial and satellite navigation, stabilizers capable of flight path corrections, and deployable wings.
As a result, these bombs can hit targets with precision within a few or dozens of yards from a release point of 37-43 miles if dropped from high altitudes. The Russians use such bombs to attack targets deep within their territory. This, combined with low production quality, causes some bombs to be faulty, failing to hit their intended targets. In this instance, one landed on Rylsk.
Dangerous and effective Russian weapons
Kovalenko estimates the crater was made by a 550-pound variant containing 220 pounds of TNT. This is not the largest version, as the Russians also deploy bombs weighing up to 3,300 pounds and 6,600 pounds with much greater destructive power.
It is important to note that even against the 550-pound variant, no field fortifications provide adequate protection, and a Su-34 aircraft can carry multiple bombs at a time, more so than larger weights. The Russians use these bombs to target Ukrainian positions detected through so-called "meat assaults."
Unfortunately, Ukrainian forces are forced to retreat to minimize losses due to a shortage of medium-range air defense systems such as the S-300, Patriot, or SAMP/T. By using this tactic, Russian forces, particularly in the Donetsk region, are advancing.
