Russian grip slips: Ukrainians notch key victories

While discussions about Russia being the world's second military power can often be ironic, it still holds this title in terms of the number of soldiers and available equipment. This is confirmed by the Global Firepower 2024 ranking, where Russia ranks second only to the USA, as well as by the ongoing conflict. Although Ukraine relies solely on its native soldiers, it receives substantial NATO support in terms of armament.

Despite this support, the Russians have been able to occupy about 20 percent of Ukraine's territory (a country covering over 230,000 square miles), where they continue to maintain a presence. They systematically carry out assaults, hoping for further conquests and shell infrastructure and cities across nearly all of Ukraine. However, this aggressive strategy has consequences, notably highlighted by the data on Russian losses over the 1,000 days of the war in Ukraine.

The numbers vary depending on the source, but notable are the reports from the creators of the Oryx blog, who document Russian equipment losses. They only count Russian units whose destruction, damage, or capture by Ukrainians has been verified through photos or recordings from the front.

It's significant to note that the Russians have already lost 28 warships and submarines, rendering their Black Sea Fleet "functionally inactive". They have also lost over 3,500 tanks, vehicles that have long symbolized military might. Although the war in Ukraine has shown that modern battlefields require previously unknown solutions (e.g., advanced electronic warfare systems or drones), tanks still play an essential role.

The Kremlin has not hesitated to send its most valuable T-90 family tanks to the front, including the latest T-90M models equipped with a 125 mm 2A46M-5 cannon, an upgraded fire control system, and Relikt modular reactive armor. According to Vladimir Putin, they are "the best tanks in the world." The estimated value of each is about $4.5 million, making the statistics showing that Ukrainians have already eliminated over 100 such tanks even more painful for him.

The Russian economy was switched to a war footing and initially coped well with army equipment supplies and Western sanctions. However, over the months, problems have emerged in producing new tanks and refurbishing older units from storage - supplies of equipment suitable for the front are slowly dwindling. This issue extends not only to tanks but also to armored combat vehicles and artillery, which seemed inexhaustible in Russia before the war broke out in Ukraine.

The result? Russian soldiers increasingly have to rely on decades-old equipment that offers little combat value on the modern battlefield.

This includes T-62 tanks from the 1960s and even older T-55s. These vehicles lack weapons with appropriate power and modern systems like thermal imaging that provide situational awareness for the crew. Additionally, their armor cannot guarantee protection against enemy armored weaponry or drones.

The limited nature of Russian resources is also evident in the increased importance of the Kremlin's allies. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has closely cooperated with Iran, acquiring Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones, among others. It is also strengthening ties with North Korea. Initially, this manifested in supplies of various types of ammunition. Over time, Kim Jong Un decided to support Putin's army with ballistic missiles, and recently with heavy military equipment in the form of M1989 "Koksan" artillery systems.

Their transfer to Russia was notably commented on by defense analyst Jarosław Wolski, who stated that it is "the best proof that Russia isn’t a bottomless pit and is starting to experience a resource crisis." Concerns arise not only from the technical condition of this North Korean equipment but also from the fact that it uses an unusual caliber, meaning the Russians must rely on missile supplies from Pyongyang. The risk was likely taken, considering Ukrainians have already eliminated over 850 Russian self-propelled artillery systems.

President Joe Biden's administration has authorized Ukraine to use American weapons to attack targets deep within Russia. Until now, these weapons could only be used to neutralize targets in territories occupied by the Russians.

This decision involves ATACMS ballistic missiles, which have a range of about 186 miles. As explained on WP Tech, these missiles will pose a major problem for Russian aviation, which has already suffered significantly at the hands of Ukrainians - nearly 300 enemy aircraft and helicopters have been eliminated. Among them were two A-50, AWACS (early warning) planes, considered the eyes of Russian aviation. The cost of each plane is about $330 million, but most concerning for the Russians, they have only a few of them, and quickly replacing them is simply impossible.

While less advanced equipment can be sourced from storage or allies, such complex aircraft require enormous resources and years of work for production and service introduction. For the same reasons, Ukrainians particularly celebrate hits on Ka-52 Alligator helicopters, S-400 anti-aircraft systems, and especially warships and submarines. Sinking the missile cruiser "Moskva," which at the time of the Ukrainian attack served as the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, will forever remain one of the most significant events of the war in Ukraine.