Russian tank losses mount as old models re‑enter the battlefield
The Russian defense industry has amazed the world with its resilience to sanctions and mobilization capabilities. However, it appears that the momentum of the Russian defense sector is starting to wane. According to the latest data, Russians are losing tanks at a rate that makes it impossible to replace the losses.
8:06 PM EDT, June 5, 2024
Defense 24 presented an analysis of Russian losses in Ukraine, referring to both data provided by the Ukrainian side (whose credibility may be questionable due to propaganda efforts) and those presented by independent analytical centers.
The last few months have seen Russian tank losses noticeably and systematically increase, fueled by evidence such as drone footage. This trend is partly due to the intensity of the fighting and a generational change in the equipment used.
While in the early months of the attack on Ukraine, Russia primarily deployed new tanks from front-line units, the mounting losses have forced them to dig deeper into their stockpiles.
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Not only older versions of the currently used T-72 or T-80 tanks are reaching the front lines, but also the T-64, T-62, and even completely archaic T-55s/54s.
The increasing share of old models in the overall number of fighting tanks is becoming evident in the statistics. Older machines are more accessible to destroy, which, combined with more intense fighting, resulted in an average of 390 tanks lost per month between March and May 2024—70% more than in the first two years of the war.
Russian problems are exacerbated by a new Ukrainian tactic of carefully destroying damaged or abandoned Russian vehicles with repeated FPV drone attacks, preventing their recovery and repair.
Even more striking are the data from early June, when Russians lost at least 37 tanks within the first two days of the month. These losses are documented by video and photo evidence, not just reported, and are equivalent to an entire month's production.
Although predictions that Russia might run out of tanks have been repeated regularly since the beginning of the conflict—and have proven overly optimistic—new data suggests that Russian tank reserves and production may be insufficient relative to the losses sustained.
At the current pace, this means that by 2025, the Russian army may start running out of tanks. Time will tell if this prediction proves more accurate than previous ones.
