Biden's missile nod: New game-changer in Ukraine-Russia conflict

Permitting Ukraine to use long-range weapons may lead to a breakthrough in the coming weeks, one that Ukrainians have hoped for over several months. The Russians are advancing with a tactic that relies heavily on military aviation.

This tactic involves sending operational assault groups to a designated area, forcing Ukrainian defensive action. Detected fortifications or positions are then hit by artillery shells or, more effectively, by guided aerial bombs weighing hundreds of pounds. The area is subsequently targeted repeatedly in what are called "meat assaults."

In this manner, Ukrainians lost Avdiivka, essentially being bombarded out of the location. Therefore, building fortifications is futile without adequate air defenses. In search of a solution, Ukrainians began attacking Russian airfields with drones, which could hit damaged aircraft. However, aircraft capable of flying always managed to evacuate to another airfield.

Russian aviation's high survivability was due to the fact that drones move at speeds around 60 mph, giving the targeted airfield up to an hour to react. The same cannot be said for the MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles, which can cover 186 miles in just a few minutes (traveling at speeds over Mach 3 or 2300 mph). This, combined with the lack of reinforced concrete shelters at Russian airfields, could be disastrous if several M39A1 missiles with cluster warheads strike.

The airfields from which Russians operate most frequently are Morozovsk near Rostov-on-Don, Saky in Crimea, and Marinovka in the Volgograd region. The first two are within 186 miles of the front line, and the Marinovka air base is less than 248 miles from, for example, Sievierodonetsk. The range might be short for the last one, but the first two airfields are already accessible to MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles.

Even sophisticated S-300 or S-400 Triumph anti-missile systems won't assist the Russians here, as they would first have to be redeployed from a section of the front. Moreover, there have been several instances where American weapons hit these anti-aircraft system batteries.

If the Ukrainians opt to attack Russian airfields, they will most likely use MGM-140 ATACMS missiles in the M39A1 version. These missiles have a range of 186 miles and a cluster warhead. The warhead contains 300 M74 APAM bomblets, each 1.3-pound ball with a diameter of 2.4 inches.

These bomblets are made of tungsten and filled with a mix of explosive and incendiary material. They detonate upon impact, and their effective destructive range is a few feet. Tungsten fragments capable of penetrating even bulletproof vests shred everything within the impact zone, and the incendiary liner can ignite fuel spilled from damaged aircraft.

Accurate missile guidance over the target, where the bomblet payload is released, is achieved through satellite and inertial navigation. It's worth noting that while the Russians can jam GPS, missing by a few dozen feet for a weapon with a damage range of hundreds of feet doesn't significantly affect its effectiveness.

Hitting a strategic target with several such missiles can paralyze Russian capabilities to attack targets in Ukraine using bombs from the FAB family with UMPK modules. Alternatively, the mere threat of using ATACMS could force the redeployment of aircraft to airfields deeper in Russia, reducing the intensity of attacks and causing logistical challenges.