Mines and chaos: Ukraine's Black Sea trade threatened

Communication routes leading from Black Sea ports are crucial for Ukrainian trade. Before the full-scale war, these routes accounted for almost 70 percent of all Ukrainian exports. They were even more significant for exporting grains and oilseeds, with as much as 98 percent being shipped by sea.

The war triggered by Russia caused a temporary transport collapse through this channel. This was a blow to the Ukrainian economy and an attempt to eliminate Ukraine from the global food market. According to data from the World Food Programme, around 400 million people, mainly in Africa and the Middle East, depended on grain supplies from Ukraine. By excluding Ukraine from this trade, Moscow hoped to take over its markets.

On July 22, 2022, despite the ongoing war, Ukraine and Russia signed an agreement known as the "Black Sea Initiative," which allowed the export of Ukrainian grain. The agreement was extended, although the Kremlin threatened to break it several times, most recently in the summer of 2023.

The grain corridor allowed a limited resumption of ship traffic. However, this does not mean that navigation from Ukrainian ports is safe. Since the beginning of the war, the Russians have placed around 2,000 mines in the Black Sea. Most of them were seized in 2014 in Sevastopol. These are old, Soviet-era mines. Since they have Ukrainian markings, Russia had no qualms about accusing Ukraine of planting them.

In October 2023, a Turkish freighter hit a mine off the Romanian coast. A month later, a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier transporting wheat hit a mine. In December, a Panamanian ship was damaged, injuring four sailors.

Due to such incidents, voyages in the Black Sea are high-risk, and some insurers are raising rates for shipowners or even refusing to insure vessels.

The Ukrainians are already preparing for a future operation to clear the sea routes. They are aware that free navigation in territorial waters will still be difficult for many years.

"The so-called urgent demining stage should last several months. These are anchorages, approaches, and waterways. It will take 5-7 months," said Commander Dmytro Pleteńczuk, press officer of the Ukrainian Navy. "The main stage of searching and destroying mines, however, will take several years, but unfortunately, our grandchildren will probably find similar devices. For example, this month, three mines from World War II landed on the coast."

Ukraine will carry out the demining operation with at least five mine countermeasure vessels, but it wants to cooperate with other countries in the Black Sea basin. In January 2024, Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey signed the MCM Black Sea memorandum, which established a group tasked with demining international waters in the western part of the Black Sea.

Mines are not just a Ukrainian problem. This year, the Turkish navy raised an alarm due to the discovery of mines even in the Bosphorus Strait. These were probably anchored mines, held underwater by steel cables, but apparently, some of them broke free. Romanian fishermen also reported finding mines.

Ukraine began modernizing its fleet in 2018. As part of this effort, in 2021, Kyiv purchased Sandown-class minehunters from the British and Alkmaar-class minehunters from the Belgians and Dutch last year. These ships are to replace the 266M project units that the Russians seized during the annexation of Crimea. The first of the new ships hoisted the Ukrainian flag in 2023, and more are expected next year.

The ships didn't arrive in Ukrainian ports—a stroke of luck—before the outbreak of the war. Currently, Turkey is blocking warships from warring parties from passing through the Bosphorus in accordance with the provisions of the 1936 Montreux Convention.

For demining the Black Sea, Ukrainians currently have to rely on improvised solutions. They use CV90 boats donated by the West, as well as rigid-hulled inflatable boats equipped with sonars and underwater unmanned vehicles for seeking and destroying sea mines.

In early July 2024, the mine countermeasure ships "Chernihiv" and "Cherkasy" participated in the "SeaBreeze" exercises held off the coast of Glasgow. These exercises marked the culmination of two years of training for Ukrainian personnel and ship crews, which, as Commander Pleteńczuk wrote, "enabled them to effectively plan, monitor, and carry out mine countermeasure activities in various scenarios."

The Ukrainians joined NATO's Standing Mine Countermeasures Group 1 (SNMCMG1), which currently consists of the German supply ship and command ship "Donau," and French and Estonian minehunters. The Estonian "Ugandi" is also a Sandown-class ship, allowing the Ukrainians to compare procedures and skills acquired during the training.

"The crews of Ukrainian mine countermeasure ships and the staff demonstrated exemplary enthusiasm, performing all training tasks and exceeding all expectations. International maritime cooperation among Alliance members is crucial to these efforts, and I am confident that it will continue to develop in the future," said Rear Admiral Steve Banfield, co-chairman of the coalition for the development of Ukrainian naval forces, after the exercises concluded.

Currently, Ukrainians can use only a few ports. Ports like Mykolaiv and Kherson are still blocked. The Russians almost daily shell them, and the waterways remain mined. Therefore, it is extremely important to clear the routes leading to Odesa or Pivdennyi.

Until the Ukrainians can pass their minehunters through the Bosphorus, civilian ship captains must rely on luck, as drifting Russian mines now float across the central and western parts of the Black Sea.