Kremlin's record draft: 150k recruits joined, but is it enough?
The Kremlin has announced a success. During the recently concluded spring draft, 150,000 recruits joined the army. Putin promises that, at least for the first year, they will not be sent to the front. However, this is not enough to achieve the set plan.
8:36 AM EDT, July 21, 2024
The draft lasted from April 1 to July 15 and was the largest in eight years. This is not surprising, as the number of conscripts has increased with each draft. For example, in last year's spring draft, 147,000 Russians were recruited. The current record will likely be surpassed soon.
The number of recruits has increased, but the age of conscripts has also risen. In July 2023, Putin raised the upper limit by three years—from 27 to 30. However, this only slightly improved the personnel situation. Due to losses, the army's numbers are still insufficient, and its demand is expected to increase. This is because the goal is for it to have 1.5 million soldiers.
Meanwhile, half a million soldiers in Ukraine are involved, and just over 600,000 remain to defend the country. Some garrisons in the Caucasus and the Far East are already stripped of soldiers. Therefore, changes in the age of conscripts were not the only ones. Amendments to the conscription registration regulations in Russia include a ban on leaving the country for those who receive a draft notice.
The Kremlin assures: You will not be sent to the front
Losses on the front easily explain drastic actions by the authorities. In a report from May 25, 2024, Ukrainians claimed that since the beginning of the conflict, they have eliminated (killed, wounded, missing, and captured) 505,000 Russians.
Putin is currently facing the highest loss rate in his army. According to estimates provided in mid-July by the British Ministry of Defense, over 70,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in May and June alone.
"In 2024, Russian losses remained high, and in May, the average daily personnel losses of Russian troops were over 1,200—the highest since the beginning of the war," the report reads.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin does not plan to send conscripts either to the occupied territories of Ukraine or to the front. They are being trained to rebuild the army's mobilization capabilities, and soldiers who want to stay and have signed long-term contracts will be sent to guard borders and perform non-combat tasks, at least for the first year.
According to analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War, the decision is motivated by the fear that public dissatisfaction with how the war is conducted might increase. Therefore, the army continues to rely on mobilizing reservists over 30.
Carrot for new soldiers
The Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense are doing everything possible to avoid a new mobilization. Contrary to the impression created by propaganda, this is not widely approved. Hence, the authorities are offering various incentives to potential recruits. About 30,000 Russians are tempted by this monthly.
The secret lies in the money—volunteers receive approximately $2,150 just for signing a contract. Additionally, volunteers across the Federation receive up to 50% compensation for rent and housing maintenance costs and exemption from property tax.
Moreover, various regions add their bonuses. For example, the authorities of Tatarstan offer the equivalent of about $477 to those who persuade friends or relatives to volunteer for the army. The recruits are to receive a one-time incentive of approximately $15,500.
Foreigners, mainly from former Soviet republics and Africa, are also being lured. Putin signed a decree expediting granting Russian citizenship to foreigners who sign at least a one-year contract for service in the army or "military formations." In such cases, Russian passports are also given to the immediate family members of the volunteers.
According to official data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, 63,600 people applied for residency cards, of which 55,400 were accepted. The number of applicants decreased compared to 2021 when there were over 80,000. The main reason for the drop in interest, pointed out by consular departments, is the situation on the front.
The tactics used on the front, which are becoming known to Russians, do not increase the number of volunteers. When the lack of experienced command staff became noticeable, the simplest attack methods began to be used, i.e., frontal assaults on fortified Ukrainian positions preceded by artillery preparation. Due to the number of casualties, these assaults are called "meat attacks." When a potential soldier imagines this, no incentive will help.
