Russian supply routes in Crimea crumble under Ukrainian attacks
Deliveries through Crimea are falling apart. The Black Sea Fleet had to flee from Sevastopol. The resistance points out targets for attacks located on the peninsula. Occupied Crimea is slowly becoming a trap for the Russians.
5:49 PM EDT, July 21, 2024
The Ukrainians are gradually cutting Crimea off from supply routes by attacking key communication lines. This poses a serious problem for the Russians, as their options are limited. The units fighting in Zaporizhzhia can only be supplied by ferries via the Crimean Bridge over the Kerch Strait, along the M14 highway on the shores of the Sea of Azov, and an expanded railway line.
The bridge is there, but it's as if it isn't
The first option is currently unavailable. On May 30, the Ukrainians damaged the ferries "Avangard" and "ConroTrader" with ATACMS missiles. These vessels handled both vehicular and rail transport. Commander Dmytro Pleteńczuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Naval Forces, informed that the Russians would try to restore this connection, as the ferries had become the main logistical tool allowing groups fighting in southern Ukraine to be supplied through the peninsula.
The fastest, though not the safest, way to deliver supplies to the front is through the Crimean Bridge, built soon after the peninsula's annexation. The bridge has already been attacked twice by the Ukrainians. In fall 2022, a truck filled with explosives detonated on it, damaging several spans. Another attack using marine drones, which damaged more spans, occurred in July last year.
At that time, the Russians initially significantly limited the use of the bridge for military transports and later – at least until mid-May 2024 – practically stopped using it altogether. Analysis of satellite images indicated that during this time, only once – at the end of February – was the passage of a train with military tankers recorded.
During this period, the Russians tried to strengthen the protection of the bridge. It is protected by sunken ships and barges. Steel nets are hung on buoys between them, theoretically intended to catch incoming unmanned boats. After the ferries were damaged, the Russians had to resume deliveries via the bridge. According to the Ukrainians, only a symbolic amount of supplies is delivered this way.
The Crimean Bridge is no longer important from a military point of view, so its destruction will not have the same effect as at the beginning of the war, assessed the spokesperson of the Ukrainian Naval Forces. "There's no point in destroying the bridge just to lift our spirits."
The railway line Yakymivka-Berdyansk-Mariupol-Rostov-on-Don will be important in ensuring the supply chain. This route will connect the occupied regions with Crimea and the mainland. The destruction of this new railway infrastructure would be a serious problem for the Russian army.
The retreat of the Black Sea Fleet
Russian supply routes are threatened, and so are the ships. Over six months ago, the Russians began withdrawing them from ports in Crimea. They moved them to Novorossiysk, out of reach of Ukrainian cruise missiles. Until recently, a large patrol ship and five large landing ships that were undergoing repairs due to damage were stationed in Sevastopol. Frigates, missile corvettes, and submarines – excluding the wreck of the "Rostov-on-Don" – have disappeared from Crimean ports.
The transport and landing ships were withdrawn in June, and the last combat ship, the patrol vessel "Ladny," left Sevastopol on July 15. "Ladny" did not present much combat value anyway. This outdated frigate, launched in 1980, can, at most, serve as an anti-aircraft ship.
Ships relocated from Crimea were initially tried to be deployed in other Black Sea ports. However, it turned out that they were either too far from the theater of war or did not have adequate facilities. Hence, the choice of Novorossiysk has a serious drawback—it is not adapted to accommodate such a large number of ships. However, the Russians have little choice in the Black and Azov Sea regions. Small units operate only on the latter. Torpedo boats and patrol vessels focused on operations in the area of the Crimean Bridge.
Problems also in Crimea
The Ukrainians are well aware of the location of Russian units in Crimea. Partisan units and regular Special Forces operate on the peninsula, conducting sabotage operations and marking targets for rocket artillery and aviation.
"Atesh," a Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar partisan movement, reported that the Russians are moving their aircraft to inactive airfields. The partisans reported repair works at the Zavodskoje airfield in Simferopol. Fighters and bombers used to attack Ukraine may be relocated there.
This is valuable information as the Ukrainians have been equipped with long-range ATACMS missiles since April. These can destroy targets up to 186 miles away, including those in occupied Crimea.
The Ukrainian military can also count on support from civilians. The Center for National Resistance (a website of Ukraine's Armed Forces aimed at supporting civilian resistance) compiled a list of Russian equipment along with photos and silhouettes, enabling civilians to identify and mark the locations of Russian systems.
Residents of occupied territories can use an app to mark the relevant vehicles and their locations or a chatbot to send photos along with the positions of vehicles. These targets have repeatedly been destroyed by Ukrainian rockets.
Crimea has thus slowly become a trap for the Russians, which means serious problems for the Southern Military Group.
