Unprecedented floods in Russia and Kazakhstan: A Climate Catastrophe?
What caused the record flood that submerged parts of Russia and Kazakhstan, compelling tens of thousands to evacuate due to swiftly rising waters? The Moscow Times explored this question on its website on Saturday.
Maria Shagedanova, a climatologist from the University of Reading, mentions that spring floods in Russia and northern Kazakhstan are to be expected and occur regularly. She references the floods of 1922, 1942, and 1957. However, she notes the current situation is exceptional, with all previous records surpassed.
The Orenburg region in Russia was particularly impacted, as the Ural River overflowed its banks. A similar situation unfolded with the Ishim River, affecting the Siberian regions of Tyumen, Omsk, and northern Kazakhstan.
The primary cause of the flooding, Shagedanova explains, is the abrupt arrival of warm spring weather, which led to the rapid melting of vast amounts of winter snow and the consequent swift rise of river levels. She detailed that more than half of this year's floods in the region were triggered in this manner, one-third resulted from rainfall, and about 15 percent were due to ice jams in rivers.
Harsh winter and rapid warming
Last winter, this part of Russia and Kazakhstan experienced above-average snowfall, with snow depths in some areas exceeding normal levels by 60 percent. The onset of spring brought a sudden spike in temperatures, leaping from below-freezing to nearly 68 degrees Fahrenheit in just a few days. This sharp temperature increase, alongside heavy rainfalls, exacerbated what was already a critical situation, transforming the surplus snow into massive waterflows.
AFP notes that scientists believe global warming, driven by rising levels of greenhouse gases, is leading to more extreme weather conditions, including floods. Yet, Shagedanova points out there is no apparent trend towards more frequent flooding in this specific region of Russia and Kazakhstan. She suggests the connection between the 2024 floods and climate changes is not straightforward.
The Moscow Times highlights that human activities also played a role in the floods. They refer to a dam breach in Orsk, a city of 220,000 near the Kazakhstan border, leading to thousands of homes inundating. Dmitry Boldyrev, a human rights advocate quoted by Russian media, explained that the reservoir above the river, which could have mitigated some of the floodwaters, was already partly filled. In January, the dam's management was urged to start draining the reservoir to prevent such a disaster, but no action was taken due to concerns about last year’s low water levels. An investigation into neglect and safety standard violations during the dam’s construction has now been launched, according to Boldyrev.
In Orenburg, a city on the Ural, residents are calling for the mayor’s resignation for allowing residential developments in flood-prone areas.
