Ukraine's fragile pause: Is Russian aggression looming?
The American Institute for the Study of War warns that a possible freezing of the conflict in Ukraine does not prevent future Russian attacks. Is this just a temporary peace?
Key information
- ISW: Freezing the conflict does not prevent future Russian attacks.
- Russia: May seek to increase its territorial gains.
- Front line: The current situation does not provide Ukraine with strategic depth.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its latest report warns that a potential agreement to freeze the front line in Ukraine does not prevent future Russian attacks. The current situation leaves parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions outside of Russian control.
ISW analysts indicate that Russia may aim to increase its territorial gains, mainly if a ceasefire agreement includes a moratorium on the delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine. A senior Russian diplomat emphasized that "the situation on the ground will dictate the next moves."
Lack of strategic depth for Ukraine
The current front line does not provide Ukraine with strategic territorial depth, making defense against renewed Russian aggression challenging. Russian forces are close to key cities like Zaporizhia and Kharkiv.
ISW assesses that the Kremlin might exploit any ceasefire that includes restrictions on American arms deliveries to Ukraine to prepare for renewed aggression. Russia may tactically ease its claims on Ukrainian territories to gain other concessions from the USA.
