Ukraine struggles with Russian ballistic missile threat
Russian forces continue missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. Although the Ukrainians are successfully destroying drones and cruise missiles, ballistic missiles still pose a serious threat and are rarely intercepted. We explain why this is the case.
The Russians are continuously attacking Ukrainian cities, and while the Ukrainians handle drones and cruise missiles effectively, they struggle with Iskander-M ballistic missiles. On April 6, 2025, of the six launched by the Russians, the Ukrainians shot down only one.
Meanwhile, for cruise missiles like the Ch-101 and Kalibr, they managed to shoot down six out of nine and six out of eight, respectively. Regarding Shahed drones, of the 109 drones, 93 were shot down or effectively disrupted using electronic warfare systems.
The weakness of Ukrainian anti-ballistic defense — Lack of replacement for Soviet-era systems
The Ukrainian air defense forces have already exhausted their missile resources for Russian S-300P systems and S-300W, and if any remain, they are rare. Western Patriot and SAMP/T batteries number just six plus two. In addition, there are older systems like MIM-23 HAWK batteries, but their capabilities are significantly worse than the more modern systems already mentioned.
These types of systems can only counter ballistic missiles within a radius of about 25 miles from the launcher. The eight batteries from the West are not enough to rebuild Ukrainian defenses since the Russian invasion, forcing the Ukrainians to make difficult decisions about what to protect and what to leave exposed to attack.
Elusive Iskander-M missiles — Here's their secret
The Iskander-M ballistic missiles, powered by a solid-fuel engine, initially ascend to space and then descend, reaching speeds exceeding Mach 7 (over 6,500 ft/s), making them very difficult to shoot down.
This has been typical behavior for ballistic missiles for decades, but recent improvements in guidance based on better INS and GPS systems have reduced the circular error probable (CEP) from hundreds to just a few or several meters.
Only a few anti-aircraft systems worldwide have the capability to destroy such targets. However, it is worth noting that a saturation attack using more ballistic missiles than the payload capacity of an anti-aircraft system can break through any defense. The Russians used Iskanders quite often at the beginning of the war, and the current production rate does not meet the demand, so fortunately, they cannot use them as often as they would like.
In the case of Iskander-M missiles, they can hit targets up to 310 miles away while carrying warheads weighing about 1,100 pounds. These can be conventional high-explosive warheads, penetrating for attacking bunkers, cluster, whose bomblets can affect a wide area, or thermonuclear, used exclusively for nuclear deterrence purposes.
