Trump's lead in chaos as Harris surges in key battlegrounds
According to the latest data from bookmakers, Donald Trump's chances in the U.S. presidential elections have plummeted, although he still maintains an advantage. Over a few weeks, his lead has shrunk from 23 to 10 percentage points, indicating a significant strengthening of Kamala Harris's position.
1:03 PM EST, November 4, 2024
Economist Piotr Kuczyński pointed out unexpected changes in bookmakers' predictions. "Something strange is happening in the USA. A sudden shift among bookmakers. Trump's 23 percentage point lead suddenly turned into 10 percentage points. There are favorable trends for Kamala Harris, but I fear (because I could not support Donald Trump) that it may be too late," wrote the expert on the X platform.
The latest data from major bookmakers indeed show dynamic changes. According to realclearpolling.com, Trump's average probability of winning is currently 56.5%, but the downward trend is clear. Online bookmaker Bwin estimates the Republican candidate's chances at 58%, Polymarket at 52%, and Smarkets at 53%.
The battle for key states
One of the recent poll analyses by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker released three days before the election shows that Kamala Harris is leading the race against Donald Trump in Michigan, one of the key swing states, by just one percentage point.
Earlier Quinnipiac University polls showed a varied situation in the swing states. In Georgia, Trump maintains a 7-percentage-point lead (52% to 45%). However, Harris is ahead in North Carolina with a lead of 2 percentage points (49% to 47%).
Several significant factors are influencing the campaign dynamics. Even though Joe Biden's administration and the Federal Reserve have effectively reduced inflation to 2.4%, as many as 59% of Americans still rate the country's economic situation as bad. In his campaign, Donald Trump focuses on immigration and economic issues, intensifying his rhetoric. He has already announced that if he wins, he will resort to the "Alien Enemies Act" of 1798 to deport illegal immigrants.
Analysts also note the effect of Harris's successful performance during the debate with Trump on September 10. The positive impression made by the Vice President could have contributed to her rise in the polls.
