Trump's odds surge in betting markets as election nears

This marks a notable rise, especially considering that Trump overtook Kamala Harris in these forecasts two weeks ago.

Elon Musk, owner of X and Tesla, who recently supported Trump's campaign with $75 million, highlights the significance of these predictions. He believes that betting shops are more reliable than traditional polls because they involve real financial risk on the part of those betting. Historical data seems to support this idea—over the past 158 years, bookmakers have only been wrong twice in predicting the outcome of presidential elections in the USA.

The current situation differs from previous election campaigns. Unlike in 2016, when Trump was an outsider both in bets and polls, this time, he is gaining ground in public opinion polls as well. Changes are especially significant in key swing states. According to Quinnipiac University, Trump is gaining an advantage over Harris even in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Recent polls in swing states conducted by Quinnipiac University have revealed new shifts in two key states for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. In a poll released on Wednesday, Trump was leading in Georgia by 7 percentage points (52 percent to 45 percent) just weeks before election day. In a separate poll conducted in North Carolina, Harris led by a narrow margin of 2 percentage points (49 percent to 47 percent), indicating that the state remains uncertain.

Analysts point to several factors contributing to Trump's growing support. One is the fading novelty effect of Kamala Harris’s candidacy. Furthermore, the positive impression she made during the debate with Trump on September 10 seems to be waning in significance.

Trump, on the other hand, is focusing on issues that may be Harris's weak points: immigration and the economy. His rhetoric on these topics is becoming increasingly sharp. In Colorado, he announced that, if victorious, he would use the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to deport illegal immigrants. At another rally, he claimed that a Harris presidency would turn America into "one big migrant camp."

A key factor influencing voters' preferences is also their perception of the economy's state. Although the Joe Biden administration and the Federal Reserve have effectively reduced inflation to 2.4 percent annually, as many as 59 percent of Americans still rate the country's economic situation as poor. This underscores how crucial the subjective perception of reality is for voters, which does not necessarily align with the actual state of the economy.

Despite these efforts, for many centrist voters, supporting a woman with liberal views and ethnic minority origin may seem like too risky a choice. The coming weeks will reveal whether Harris can reverse the unfavorable trend for her and convince undecided voters.