Trump's global LNG push: Pressure mounts on Europe and Asia

Donald Trump is continuing the strategy in which America is set to become an energy powerhouse. On his first day in office, he changed the law, unlocking the potential for increased mining and the construction of new gas fields and terminals. The USA aims to double its current LNG (liquefied natural gas) production by 2030. Now it's time for new contracts and strengthening market position.

To achieve this, Trump employs both threats and pressure. By imposing steep tariffs on nearly the entire world and then suspending them for 90 days, he signaled that countries should use that time to make offers that would satisfy the USA. The key agreements are expected to include contracts for gas, armaments, or raw materials.

The demands of the US president are constantly increasing. The European Union has assured that it is willing to increase purchases of American LNG at the expense of current imports from Russia. Despite this assurance, Trump imposed tariffs on Europe reaching 20 percent.

In negotiations, Ursula von der Leyen proposed a "zero-for-zero" customs agreement on cars and other industrial goods. However, when Trump was asked about such a solution at a White House press conference, he stated that it was insufficient.

In Trump's opinion, the EU would need to commit to purchasing $350 billion worth of energy from the USA, covering the entire trade deficit calculated by his administration (although, in reality, the EU's trade surplus in goods with the USA is about $150 billion).

Considering that in 2024 American gas already constituted 45 percent of the entire EU import, and the Europeans' energy purchases were valued at $13 billion, following Trump's demands, the EU would have to increase orders nearly 27-fold.

Currently, the Union imports gas from countries including Qatar, Algeria, the USA, and Russia. The EU climate policy assumes a gradual reduction of gas consumption in favor of renewable energy sources. Despite this, Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen mentioned in an interview with "The Financial Times" that "there is potential for us to buy more LNG from the United States, but of course, it has to be done on terms consistent with our (green - editor's note) transformation."

Trump's strategy is not limited to Europe. LNG is also a lever for other countries. Trump reportedly already discussed large purchases of American LNG with South Korea's interim leader, Han Duck-soo, as reported last week by Bloomberg.

Japan has reportedly lined up for American energy as well. So far, the main suppliers to Japan have been Australia with 26.6 million tons (41 percent), Malaysia with 10.2 million tons (15.8 percent), and Russia with 6.3 million tons (9.7 percent). Meanwhile, the USA provided only 5.8 million tons (9 percent) of LNG.

Larger gas purchases from the United States have also been announced by Indonesia, Thailand, and Taiwan. Taiwan has declared that within the next decade it could triple the share of American LNG (from the current 10 percent to 30 percent). That's not all. According to Taiwan's Minister of Economic Affairs, Kuo Jyh-Huei, state entities could purchase goods worth $6 billion from Americans, as he discussed with Bloomberg.

Both Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have announced that they are considering investments in American LNG facilities in Alaska. This is a $44 billion project, supported by Donald Trump.

Donald Trump's plans go much further. The United States still holds the status of the world's largest LNG exporter. In 2024, the USA exported 88.3 million tons of LNG.

According to Dr. Szymon Kardas, an expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations, there are good reasons for the Americans to maintain sanctions against Russia, including those covering Western technologies. These effectively halted Moscow's pre-war ambitions in LNG production. Let's recall that according to the Russian Federation's Energy Strategy until 2035 (a document from 2020), Russia aimed to produce between 80 and even 140 million tons of LNG annually, with up to 91 million tons in the Arctic alone.

"Today's competitors for American LNG are the Qataris, Australians, and a few countries in Africa, but not Russia," explains Kardas.

True, Russian LNG is still purchased by some European countries, but it cannot be re-exported further in the world due to EU sanctions. Also, the largest recipients of Russian LNG, China and India, are limiting imports.

"The Russians have hit a wall. They have Yamal LNG in Europe operating at maximum parameters and small installations controlled by Gazprom in Portovaya and the terminal in Vysotsk owned by Novatek. This year marks the end of the pipeline gas supply contract through Lithuania to the Kaliningrad Oblast. If Vilnius does not extend it, the cut-off enclave will have to be supplied by Portovaya LNG, using all its capabilities. Another option is Arctic LNG-2. The first line operates at only 25 percent, producing just 6.6 million tons. Sanctions on methane tankers effectively paralyze this project as well," according to Dr. Kardas.

As the expert emphasizes, even if Trump eased sanctions against Moscow today, the Russians would have difficulty maintaining growth potential.

"The Russians have essentially already reached their maximum. It will take a lot of time before they invent their own technology for LNG. The USA has outperformed Russia in this field," emphasizes Kardas.

However, for Trump, Russian gas may still be attractive. As reported in money.pl, there have been suggestions that the USA could engage in gas cooperation with Russia. In February 2025, "The Wall Street Journal" reported that Miami-based financier Stephen P. Lynch is trying to acquire shares in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. There have been voices suggesting that American control over this project could be a significant asset in peace negotiations with Russia. Sergey Lavrov later confirmed that talks between the USA and Russia about resuming supplies through Nord Stream were taking place.

From a purely business perspective, such cooperation could be beneficial for both sides. The Americans would take cheaper gas from the Yamal region and western Siberia from the Russians and sell it with their own label in the EU. Control over Nord Stream shares would reduce the costs of gas transport and LNG supplies. Meanwhile, Russia would earn as an intermediary.

However, this is not the only gas pipeline that interests Trump. According to "The Guardian" on Saturday, the USA "demands control" over a crucial gas pipeline that transmits Russian gas through Ukraine to Western Europe as part of a minerals agreement being prepared.

This concerns the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline, which carried natural gas from western Siberia through Ukraine to Europe. In December 2022, it was damaged by an explosion.

According to "The Guardian," the latest American document includes a demand for the US International Development Finance Corporation to take control of it. This would confirm the thesis that Trump is ready to also earn from the transport of gas from Russia to Europe.

It remains an open question as to what the European Union's response will be. Brussels plans a complete departure from Russian gas. They are also exploring legal options that would allow European companies to terminate long-term contracts for Russian gas without paying huge contractual penalties, as reported by "The Financial Times" on Tuesday.

However, within the EU itself, there are countries - like Slovakia and Hungary - that push for further imports of raw materials from Russia and a return to former dealings with Moscow.

Some European companies seem willing to collaborate with Russia. Didier Ollo, vice president of the French Engie, points out that Russia could supply about 60-70 billion cubic meters of gas annually, meeting 20-25 percent of the Union's demand, instead of 40 percent before the war outbreak. A similar opinion was expressed by Patrick Pouyanné, president of the French company TotalEnergies. If Trump managed to gain control over the mentioned pipelines, the USA could profit greatly from it.