Trump's energy tactics spark EU concerns over security

Europe has observed a significant shift in Donald Trump's administration's attitude toward traditional alliances. The U.S. has not only cut financial aid and arms supplies to Ukraine, but it has also limited their access to intelligence. The U.S. is also hesitant to assist NATO countries that do not increase their defense budgets and argues that a "reset" with US-Russia relations is needed. These developments raise serious concerns among other allies.

Europe relies on American military systems and equipment and on the U.S. as a significant supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This partnership is deepening as Europe gradually cuts off supplies from Russia.

According to data from the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), the European Union purchased about 44 million US tons of American LNG in 2024. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stated that the Union is prepared to increase gas purchases from the U.S. further, replacing Russian supplies.

In December 2024, Dr. Kamil Lipiński, Head of the Climate and Energy Team at the Polish Economic Institute, noted that LNG accounted for about 37% of gas supplies to the EU in 2024. The majority came from the U.S., exceeding the combined production from the North Sea and the Norwegian Continental Shelf, which stood at 31%.

This situation raises the question: Can the EU comfortably base its energy security on Trump's America, which increasingly acts more like a competitor than a partner? After experiencing the impact of the energy crisis due to the invasion of Ukraine, Europe has learned that energy resources can be as powerful a political tool as military capabilities.

Dr. Szymon Kardaś from the European Council on Foreign Relations admits that the idea of a reset with Russia, mentioned by Keith Kellogg, the U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, is alarming. The prospect of Washington getting closer to Moscow while cooling relations with the EU is concerning. However, he does not equate the current gas cooperation with the U.S. to Europe's recent heavy reliance on Russian resources.

In this matter, I'm not afraid of Trump. He is pragmatic, and gas contracts with Europe are beneficial for the U.S. There is a critical difference between the nature of the gas market in the U.S. and its management in Russia, where the Kremlin or even Putin could order Gazprom to shut off the supply. Gas contracts with the U.S. are made with companies, not the White House. While the administration can conduct fiscal or regulatory actions that complicate contracts, there isn't the same risk present with the Russian Federation - argues Dr. Kardaś.

The development of infrastructure for receiving liquefied gas has opened up a range of import possibilities for Europe from various sources. Gas is imported into the EU from the U.S., Qatar, Algeria, and still from Russia, although the Union plans to stop LNG imports from Russia by 2027.

Dr. Kardaś reminds us that the EU has largely learned its lesson by evolving its market and developing supply routes. Although the role of the U.S. as an LNG supplier is increasing, there is no current dependency.In 202,3 American gas comprised 20% of imports, about 2,224 billion cubic feet. For comparison, the EU's dependence on Russian gas in 2021 reached 45%, translating to 5,471 billion cubic fee, he argues.

However, he believes Europe holds a powerful card and plays it too timidly. This refers to the dynamic benefits of such an arrangement and Trump’s transactional political approach.

In 2023, deliveries to Europe accounted for 53% of the entire U.S. LNG export. This means that Europe as a whole was the most important market for the U.S. This is an often forgotten advantage, but it should appeal to Trump - emphasizes the analyst.

Additionally, the changing market benefits Europeans. According to forecasts by the International Gas Union, representing the global gas industry, the LNG market is expected to grow dynamically, significantly increasing production capacity in upcoming years. The United States has announced plans to double LNG exports by 2030, adding 77 million US tons of liquefied gas.

- Someone will have to buy this gas. American exporters will compete with companies in Qatar, Australia, and Africa. The increase in supply will lead to lower prices. This is another reason why the EU market is essential for America - adds Dr. Kardaś.

Dr. Kamil Lipiński from PIE emphasized that the EU could have greater market power if member countries signed gas contracts collectively rather than individually.

- In this context, an intriguing proposal to strengthen Europe's bargaining power on the gas market surfaced in a report by Mario Draghi, suggesting the creation of a joint EU LNG buyer to negotiate contracts with major players in the U.S., Qatar, and other third countries - recalled Lipiński.

Unlike pipelines, LNG supplies allow flexible approaches to gas imports, avoiding ties to a single supplier. However, according to Dr. Kardaś, Europe should continuously develop its ability to secure energy resources from diverse suppliers and routes, including pipelines.

- Norway is a reliable ally, supplying over 30% of the EU's gas imports. We can also explore other options, such as obtaining gas from Azerbaijan or via Turkey - he lists.

As he emphasizes, diversification is key to independence. - We should follow China's path to implement a wise energy policy. They've expanded pipelines to Central Asia and established new LNG terminals to maintain balance and avoid dependence on gas from Russia or elsewhere - notes Dr. Kardaś.

We can also draw inspiration from Japan, where the government invests in foreign LNG ventures to secure gas supplies at preferential rates. This model is on the EU agenda, allowing European companies to invest in LNG projects potentially.