Syria's future is uncertain as Jihadist leader takes control
The Assad regime has fallen. Who is the new leader of Syria, Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani, and in what direction will the country go under his rule? His fighters' sentiment is not to focus on governing the state but on the continuation of jihad or holy war. This presents a significant problem for the region, says Paweł Rakowski, a Middle East expert.
On Sunday, Syrian rebels announced that they had taken control of the country. Two organizations participated in the action: HTS, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani, and the Syrian National Army. There are claims that Turkey helped coordinate the rebels' offensive and gave it the green light. However, Turkish authorities officially deny any role in the recent events in Syria.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that captured Damascus on Sunday and toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime, is currently the strongest military faction of the Syrian opposition. On November 27, HTS launched a large-scale offensive against government forces. In the first week of fighting, the organization captured most of Aleppo and expanded its sphere of influence in the north.
Who is al-Jaulani?
The leader of HTS is Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani. In the past, he fought with al-Qaeda, but now he distances himself from radicalism, declaring a move away from jihadism and an intention to respect minority rights. HTS is still designated as a terrorist group by the US, EU, and Turkey.
Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani is well-known in the Middle East and Syria itself. However, what he is known for doesn't inspire optimism. In the early 21st century, as a young man, he fought in al-Qaeda in Iraq, was later arrested by the Americans, and imprisoned. After his release, he returned to Syria. When the war broke out, he was one of the leading Islamists who transformed it from a secular and civic rebellion into a jihad," says Paweł Rakowski, a Middle East expert.
Rakowski recalls that al-Jaulani founded the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, known for many crimes in Syria, including the occupation of Maaloula, a Christian town near Damascus. His career was linked to the Islamic State, and due to internal conflicts, al-Jaulani split from ISIS. He and his faction eliminated some of his companions. Since around 2017, he has operated in the northern Syrian region, significantly influenced by Turkish services, according to the interlocutor.
According to Paweł Rakowski, the essence of the civil war in Syria was that for 13 years, no leader emerged who could unify the nation.
During the war that has been ongoing since 2011, there were about 120 different militias or organizations, leading to chaos. This situation was advantageous for Assad, who didn’t have even a partner for negotiations. Al-Jaulani is a man with an unclear biography. Officially, he's very educated and a Syrian. His name suggests that his family came from the Golan Heights, captured in 1967 by Israel. As a result, about 100,000 Syrians had to flee. He himself was probably born in Saudi Arabia where his father worked and amassed wealth. Later, he spent a decade in Syria, in one of the better districts of Damascus. These facts are very important for Syrians, so that the power coming from outside is connected with Syria," claims the Middle East expert in an interview.
On Friday, before Assad's escape, al-Jaulani gave an interview to CNN, which - as the station emphasizes - took place in broad daylight with minimal security. He stated that the goal of the Syrian rebel coalition is to eventually topple President Bashar al-Assad. He discussed plans to create a government based on institutions and a "council chosen by the people."
On Sunday, the HTS leader declared that during the transition period, Syrian state institutions would be overseen by former Prime Minister Muhammad Gazi al-Jalali until they are officially transferred to the new authority. Reuters notes that this indicates a desire for a smooth transition after the rebels announced the end of Assad's rule.
According to Paweł Rakowski, al-Jaulani is entering Syria, officially without external ties.
He is still perceived by the US as a terrorist, and there is a $10 million bounty on his head. However, giving an interview to CNN a few days ago was very significant and symbolic. When the rebel offensive began, the Middle East was still largely behind Assad but started to lean towards al-Jaulani. After the fall of Aleppo and as al-Assad was losing ground, the Americans – by the CNN interview – signaled who they were backing," evaluates Paweł Rakowski.
Rakowski points out that the rebel offensive in Syria started a few hours after Israel's ceasefire with Hezbollah.
So, it's hard to talk about coincidence here," the expert emphasizes.
Rakowski highlights another aspect related to possible scenarios concerning HTS governance.
From my perspective, observing the world of radical Islam, I have many concerns about HTS and al-Jaulani. HTS is not solely a Syrian component, and this is a very big problem. It's not like Hamas, with tight leadership and very disciplined. According to various estimates, it's an alliance of about 27 different militias and groups or factions, under the nominal, unified authority of al-Jaulani. This means HTS could "fall apart" at any moment," evaluates Rakowski.
As an example, he cites images from Sunday, parallel to al-Jaulani's measured speech.
Already, his organization’s "soldiers" began threatening Israel and Saudi Arabia. This is dangerous. If al-Jaulani wanted to implement some form of governance, the sentiments among his fighters were not focused on governing the state but on the continuation of jihad or holy war. This is a big problem for the region. The world's reactions are already such that there is no great trust in the rebels. Instead of being a constructive Islamic party like Hezbollah, HTS could face the specter of anarchy. As a result, Syria could turn into a second Somalia, with an endless civil war," summarizes the Middle East expert.
