Russia's navy targets Europe with potential nuclear strikes

As the newspaper reports, 32 targets were detailed in a presentation for officers before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These targets included the western coast of France and Barrow-in-Furness, a town in northwestern England with a shipyard where British warships are built. However, the maps were created for presentation rather than operational purposes.

"FT" recalls that earlier, based on the same set of 29 secret Russian military documents revealed by Western military sources, it reported that Moscow had practiced the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the early stages of a conflict with global power. The latest revelations show how Russia envisioned a conflict with the West reaching far beyond NATO's immediate borders, planning a series of overwhelming strikes in Western Europe.

The documents, compiled between 2008 and 2014, include a list of targets for missiles that can carry conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. Russian officers emphasized the advantages of nuclear attacks in the early stages of a conflict. The presentation also indicates that Russia has retained the capability to deploy nuclear weapons on surface ships, which, according to experts, carries significant additional risks of escalation or accidents.

The document noted that the "high maneuverability" of the Russian navy allows it to conduct "sudden and pre-emptive strikes" and "massive missile attacks from various directions." It added that nuclear weapons are "usually" intended to be used "in combination with other means of destruction" to achieve Russia's objectives.

Analysts cited by "FT" who have reviewed the documents concluded that they align with NATO's assessment of the threat of long-range missile attacks from the Russian navy and the speed at which Russia would likely resort to using nuclear weapons. They added that if the Russian military engaged NATO forces in frontline countries like the Baltic states and Poland, targets across the continent would be threatened by Russia.

William Alberque, a former NATO official now working at the Stimson Center think tank, said that these 32 described objects are a fraction of "hundreds, if not thousands of targets mapped across Europe, including military and critical infrastructure targets."

"FT" reminds that tactical nuclear weapons, which can be delivered by missiles launched from land or sea or from aircraft, have a shorter range and are less destructive than larger "strategic" weapons aimed at attacking the USA, but can still release significantly more energy than the bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.

The newspaper also reminds us that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly resorted to threats against Ukraine’s European allies to deter Western military support for Kyiv. "They must remember that they are small, densely populated countries," he said in May.

The presentation also mentions a so-called demonstrative strike - detonating a nuclear weapon in a remote area "in a period of direct threat of aggression" before actual conflict to scare Western countries. Russia has never admitted that such strikes are included in its doctrine. According to the documents, such a strike would show the "availability and readiness to use precise non-strategic nuclear weapons" and the "intent to use nuclear weapons."

The documents state that the main priority for Russia in a conflict with NATO is to "weaken the military and economic potential of the enemy." Analysts believe this means Russia would strike civilian objects and critical infrastructure, as it did in Ukraine.

Dara Massicot, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Russian strategists partly view nuclear weapons as crucial in the early stages of a conflict with NATO due to weaker conventional military resources. "They simply do not have enough missiles," she explained.

The documents also indicate that Russia has retained the capability to deliver tactical nuclear weapons on surface ships despite a 1991 agreement between the Soviet Union and the USA to remove them from such vessels.

Alberque assessed that this is astounding given the inherent dangers of deploying nuclear weapons at sea, even during peacetime. Unlike a strategic submarine with ballistic missiles designed to launch nuclear payloads from deep in the ocean, a surface fleet ship with nuclear warheads on board would be much more susceptible to damage from storms or enemy strikes.

"FT" notes that recent maneuvers ordered by Putin to practice the use of tactical nuclear weapons indicate that the leaked documents are still consistent with current Russian military doctrine.