Putin and Lukashenko discuss nuclear maneuvers and regional tensions

During Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Minsk, the main topics of conversation with Alexander Lukashenko included nuclear weapon exercises. Although no agreements were reached, the visit had a grim tone. "Moscow does not foresee the possibility of ending the conflict," writes Piotr Żochowski from the Polish OSW Center for Eastern Studies.

At the end of last week, on May 23-24, the presidents of Russia and Belarus met in Minsk. According to the Center for Eastern Studies, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko focused on economic cooperation and regional security issues. However, the nature of the talks suggests that the politicians are not abandoning their confrontational course.

The Russian president emphasized that due to the tense situation on the Union State's external borders, the issue of "creating a unified defense space" was discussed. Putin also announced the conduct of Russian exercises using tactical nuclear weapons deployed on Belarusian territory.

In turn, Lukashenko indicated that these exercises are a response to NATO's increasing military activity near the Belarusian border. He noted that these will be the third such maneuvers in a row.

Piotr Żochowski, the author of the analysis, assessed that the President of Russia reiterated his stance that peace talks with Ukraine can only begin if Russia's interests are considered.

Scheduled for June, the peace summit in Switzerland was deemed a propagandistic endeavor by Putin. He also questioned Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy as the legal president of Ukraine, the OSW commentary reads.

Żochowski's commentary further noted that "the Putin-Lukashenko meeting was a political theater without any overt decisions." It confirmed Belarus's subservient role in implementing Russian military policy. It highlighted that Minsk and Moscow thoroughly coordinate key issues, including military cooperation and the Belarusian regime's aggressive actions against NATO countries.

Putin's statement about the prospects of resuming peace talks with Ukraine indicates that the Kremlin has not changed its position on Kyiv's expected concessions, which include the demilitarization of the country, change of government, and de facto takeover by Russia. Moscow does not foresee the possibility of ending the conflict even at the cost of leaving its current territorial gains, states the author of the analysis.

OSW analysts point out that "emphasizing issues related to the implementation of a common security policy and border protection with NATO countries once again proves that Belarus will continue destabilizing actions (including supporting the migration crisis) targeted at Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia."

The announcement of nuclear weapon exercises "constitutes a psychological operation intended to deter Belarus's neighbors from continuing policies that enhance their own security," the analysis reads.

An important element of joint actions will also be further disinformation operations suggesting that NATO countries are pursuing aggressive policies that could lead to armed conflict with Belarus and Russia, the analysis adds.

Commenting on Putin's statement about the prospects for resuming peace talks with Ukraine, OSW notes that "it indicates that the Kremlin has not changed its position on Kyiv's expected concessions, which include the demilitarization of the country, change of government, and de facto takeover by Russia."

The author of the analysis concludes that Moscow will strive to derail the peace summit scheduled for June in Switzerland. At this summit, the proposal to end the war on Kyiv's terms, the so-called 10-point Peace Formula of Volodymyr Zelensky, will be discussed.