Russia's hopes dashed as Chinese firms hesitate to revive auto industry

Russia quickly took control of factories left behind by Western companies following the onset of the Ukraine invasion. Hopes for reviving these plants rested on Chinese firms, yet they remain unconvinced by the prospect.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has persisted for over two years, with little sign of an imminent end. Internationally, Russia faces severe isolation due to sanctions, deeply affecting its automotive industry.

Not only have embargoes devastated the Russian automotive sector, but the departure of European manufacturers, who almost unanimously exited the country following the intensification of the conflict, has compounded the issue. The government, rather than inviting corporations back, swiftly assumed control of these factories.

Owning production facilities is one challenge—operating them is another. Before the conflict, Russia boasted an annual car production of about 1.5 million units, positioning it as a potential automotive hub in Europe. However, these aspirations have since crumbled.

Russians have made several attempts to revive car production, focusing on local designs with mixed success. They're also reaching out to brands from countries less concerned with the Ukraine conflict. Yet, profits remain low, often insufficient to jumpstart the seized factories.

Russia is looking to China, hoping for an automotive market boost. China, attempting to navigate the wartime chaos, tries to maintain its Western alliances while cooperating with Vladimir Putin. The vast, untapped Russian market appears to be an ideal opportunity for Chinese brands.

However, Chinese companies hesitate to engage. These firms are more focused on expanding sales and growing their most promising brands, where maintaining good relations with the USA and Europe is vital.

Moreover, the relationship between entities like the EU and China is already fraught with difficulties. Entering the Russian market could severely impact brands aiming to expand into Europe. Additionally, operating in Russian factories is simply not profitable for Chinese businesses.

"I have the impression they somewhat overestimated their capabilities," said Russian analyst Sergei Burgazliev in a discussion with Bloomberg, referring to two automotive giants who acquired factories after Mercedes, Hyundai, or Volkswagen exited. Without substantial government incentives, the Chinese option might vanish, leaving Russian companies to struggle for survival.