Russia's carrier aspirations falter as navy power wanes

Joint missions involving Su-33, MiG-31, and strategic bombers Tu-95MS are showcased by pro-Moscow media as a display of strength. However, flights over the Norwegian or Barents Seas, intercepted by NATO aircraft, indicate that Russia is misusing its carrier-based aviation.

This suggests that Russian decision-makers might have no illusions left regarding the future of Russia's only aircraft carrier. Even if the Admiral Kuznetsov ever leaves the repair yard, it will lack an effective air group since Russia's carrier-based aviation has almost ceased to exist.

The Su-33 aircraft is derived from the Su-27 fighter, developed under the designation Su-27K. Compared to the original, it features modified engines and landing gear, a canard aerodynamic layout with additional control surfaces at the front of the fuselage, as well as enlarged and foldable wings.

These modifications were designed to adapt the aircraft for carrier-based operations, including taking off and landing on an aircraft carrier.

Work on the Su-33/Su-27K during the 1980s was part of a larger, ambitious program aimed at expanding the Soviet navy and transforming it from a coastal defense force into an ocean-going fleet capable of challenging the United States Navy.

For this reason, the USSR worked on a family of carrier-based aircraft. In addition to the Su-33, there was the MiG-29K, the two-seat trainer Su-25UTG, and the early warning aircraft Yak-44. Development was also underway for a new vertical take-off and landing aircraft; following the disappointing Yak-38, its improved successor Yak-141 was in the works.

Simultaneously, the construction of Project 1143.5 aircraft carriers, including the Admiral Kuznetsov and Varyag, was funded. Alongside these, the design and construction of the first aircraft carrier of Project 1143.7 began in 1988.

The Ulyanovsk was planned to have nuclear propulsion and was only slightly smaller than the American Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, aiming to be among the most capable CATOBAR carriers. As Ulyanovsk was being built, preparations to lay the keel for the next ship of this type began.

To support the planned development of carrier-based aviation, the Russians also built the unique flight trainer Nitka in Crimea. At the Saki airbase, a large installation mimicking an aircraft carrier deck was embedded in a ground runway. This deck could move, simulating the rocking of a ship's deck.

All these ambitious plans unraveled like a house of cards with the collapse of the USSR. Of the planned carriers, Russia completed only the Admiral Kuznetsov. The unfinished Varyag was sold to China, where it was completed as the aircraft carrier Liaoning. Construction on the supercarrier Ulyanovsk was halted at about 40 percent completion, and the vessel was scrapped.

From the Kremlin's great-power plans, only the project of the MiG-29K aircraft remained. This aircraft garnered interest from India, which developed an air group for the aircraft carriers INS Vikramaditya (built on the foundation of the aircraft cruiser Admiral Gorshkov bought from Russia) and INS Vikrant.

For years, the pride of the Russian fleet was the sole aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov. Though it looked impressive, it is not a successful vessel. Its capabilities, measured by daily take-offs and landings, are far inferior to those of American carriers. Worse, aircraft taking off from Kuznetsov had to be either under-fueled or under-armed—the lack of a catapult necessitated weight restrictions on launching planes.

The carrier itself, which during deployments emitted smoke like a 19th-century steamship, was only fit for repair after its mission in the Middle East following a period of limited activity.

When it finally reached the repair yard in 2017, it faced numerous issues—fires broke out, and the dry dock capable of servicing such a large vessel was destroyed due to incompetence. Meanwhile, the Kremlin, considering the matter prestigious, consistently assured that Admiral Kuznetsov's return to service was imminent, though the return date has been repeatedly delayed. It was initially expected in 2022.

The interception of the Su-33 over the Barents Sea underscores the implausibility of Russia's assertions that Admiral Kuznetsov will soon return to service. This is due to several factors.

First, there's a lack of personnel. During the ship's lengthy restoration, its crew dispersed, with some sailors transferring to mechanized infantry and being sent to Ukraine.

Second, the only Russian aircraft carrier has been under repair for seven years, and the pilots who served on it have either retired or lack training opportunities. The Nitka trainer is now within Ukrainian drone range after Russia's attack on Ukraine. Its current condition is unknown, but even if operational, it hasn't been used for training in years.

Third, there's a degradation of Kuznetsov's air group. Were the carrier to return to service, its pilots would require extensive retraining due to the long hiatus. As noted by Ukraine's Defence Express, none of this is happening.

Instead of restoring their lost skills for carrier take-offs and landings, Russian pilots are serving as escorts for Tu-95 patrols. This depletes the limited resources of the few remaining carrier-based aircraft still in use—of the 35 (or, by some accounts, 48) Su-33s produced, currently, only 17 are flightworthy.

This shows that Russian carrier aviation, built over many years with significant resources, has practically ceased to exist. Even if—unlikely as it seems—Admiral Kuznetsov returns to service, it will lack an air group due to insufficient aircraft and pilots.

India and China are building aircraft carriers, and Japan, for the first time since World War II, is returning to this class of vessels, albeit limited to vertical take-off and landing aircraft. South Korea also plans to construct the CVX carrier.

Russia, once one of the few countries with a classic aircraft carrier, is no longer a contender in this competition. Its ability to project power, such as deploying an aircraft carrier with an air group to support the fragile rule of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, is now just a distant memory for the Kremlin.