Russian Air force struggles as aging fleet faces rapid decline
Although the Russian Air Force has suffered proportionally fewer losses than the ground forces, it is in a state of disrepair. The war in Ukraine has accelerated the ongoing degradation of Russian equipment and capabilities, and the industry is not keeping up with replenishing these losses.
8:36 PM EDT, July 17, 2024
The Russian Air Force was already on a downward slope before the attack on Ukraine. Its mainstay is old planes. Contrary to propagandistic messages, Russian design bureaus and factories cannot provide the military with replacements for aircraft designed in the Soviet era.
According to Defence 24 expert Maciej Szopa, out of about 1,200 Russian planes in service, 550 are already nearing the end of their life cycle. These planes have been so heavily used that they are approaching the endurance limit of their structures. This includes Su-24, Su-25, Su-27, and MiG-29 and MiG-31 aircraft.
Ukrainian estimates suggest that Russia uses 300 machines of various types daily. According to Maciej Szopa, considering the fleet's operational rate, this figure indicates that Russia has engaged most of its combat aircraft in the fights.
How many combat aircraft does Russia have?
The real number of combat-ready machines is at most 850 units.
Out of these, about 340-360 aircraft produced after 2010 (Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, and Su-57, as well as older strategic bombers) are considered to have the capability to effectively use them in combat during a hypothetical confrontation between Russia and NATO countries.
At the same time, regardless of damages or being shot down in combat due to wear and tear, Russia will have to retire about 60 aircraft this year alone.
Additionally, at least 12 were destroyed by the Ukrainians in the first half of the year (losses may be higher, but the destruction of 12 aircraft is confirmed by photographic documentation).
Meanwhile, in 2022, the Russian industry produced only 27 new combat aircraft. In 2023, there were 24, and by mid-2024 only six. As a result, the degradation of the Russian Air Force’s capabilities is progressing.
The number of decommissioned and destroyed aircraft significantly exceeds the Russian industry's production capacity, and the Russian Air Force's potential is systematically declining.
