Russia Prepares for Potential NATO Conflict, Boosts Military Might

The Russian military is preparing for potential future conflicts, according to reports from the American magazine "Foreign Policy," which cited sources within the Estonian intelligence services. The Kremlin is reportedly anticipating a conflict with NATO within the next decade.

More than two years after the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be gaining confidence. His main political rival, Alexei Navalny, is no longer alive, decisions regarding further US military aid to Ukraine are facing delays in Congress, and Russia has adapted its economy for wartime conditions, enhancing defense production and achieving economic growth despite international sanctions.

According to Kaupo Rosin, Director General of Estonia's foreign intelligence, this development aligns with the Kremlin's strategy. He noted that the Russian military has quickly learned from its early mistakes in the conflict and is adapting to new conditions with remarkable speed.

Rosin also mentioned that historically, Russia has managed to solve its problems through sheer numbers - a strategy that continues to benefit them. He believes that the reforms in the Russian armed forces are likely to result in an army with Soviet-era technology levels but significant firepower, especially in terms of artillery.

At the end of 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a plan to restructure the armed forces and increase their numbers by 30 percent, aiming for a total of 1.5 million personnel by 2026. Estonian intelligence suggests that Moscow intends to double the number of military personnel positioned in the western part of the country compared to the numbers stationed there immediately before the invasion of Ukraine.

Ants Kiviselg, chief of Estonian military intelligence, highlighted Russia's substantial increase in artillery shell production and its efforts to secure additional supplies from countries like North Korea and Iran. This gives Russia a significant firepower advantage over Ukraine.

The director of Estonian foreign intelligence emphasized that a war between Russia and NATO is not inevitable, highlighting that much can still be done to deter Moscow's aggression. "Much depends on our actions in the West," he stressed.

Ensuring Ukraine's success in the ongoing conflict is viewed as a critical task by the Estonian intelligence officials, who believe that the outcome will significantly impact the future of Europe.