Russia capitalizes on failed peace talks, escalates Ukraine offensive
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia intends to use the ongoing peace negotiations to gain control over significant areas of Ukraine, mainly focusing on the eastern part of the country. "The Russians are acting on the front as if these peace talks didn't exist. They have acted and continue to act intensively," says General Waldemar Skrzypczak to WP.
"The negotiations have no impact on the front. Politicians' discussions do not change the military position. Russia has decided to use this," warns General Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Polish Land Forces.
Despite declarations following the US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia, both parties to the conflict have yet to reach a maritime ceasefire agreement. The Kremlin does not want to agree to such a move without the easing of Western sanctions. Meanwhile, negotiations regarding a ceasefire in case of attacks on energy infrastructure are ongoing, and their outcome remains unclear.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Russians on the front have intensified their activities in three areas.
They aim to push Ukrainian forces away from the border with the Belgorod Oblast and advance to within artillery range of the city of Kharkiv. They seek to capture the remaining part of the Luhansk Oblast by advancing west toward the eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircling the Donetsk Oblast from the north. They are also persistent in their efforts to capture the entire Donetsk Oblast. Russian support is increasing on the so-called southern axis, with an ongoing intensive air, missile, and drone campaign by the Kremlin.
"The Russians continue to bomb and attack in Sumy, Chernihiv Oblasts, the Kupiansk region along the Oskil River, and the Lyman and Kramatorsk regions," lists General Waldemar Skrzypczak.
"These are not major strike groups but units heavily 'tearing' the Ukrainian defense. The Russians are also striking in the Kherson direction, which is the greatest threat. If Moscow wants to conduct a full-scale offensive, it will aim to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea. They will want to reach Odessa and Transnistria. This is the strategic goal of the Russians," predicts the former Land Forces commander.
In his assessment, the Russians behave on the front as if the talks were not happening at all, continuing their intense actions.
"And due to the spring season, they have intensified their attacks. There are no signs from the Russian forces that they are waiting for political resolutions to the dispute. There is no indication of any ceasefire. It's the opposite. The Russians are gathering their forces and resources. Why would they want a ceasefire now? They will want to use every moment for a larger-scale strike. They are preparing to escalate operations," assesses General Skrzypczak.
Bartłomiej Wypartowicz, an expert from the Defence24.pl portal, shares a similar opinion.
"The Russians will prolong the peace talks and use them to build the best possible negotiating position in the future and to carry out offensive actions on the front," he emphasizes.
He adds that there is currently a large "pressure" from Russian Federation soldiers on many fronts.
"Until recently, they limited themselves to 1-2 fronts; now they attack rather along the entire front line. They are also gathering in large numbers around the Sumy Oblast. There is talk of another incursion into this region when Ukrainian soldiers are pushed out of the Kursk Oblast. The threat to Ukraine is very real there," comments the expert from Defence24.pl.
He reminds us of the issue of the annual conscription of 150,000 Russian soldiers, for which the relevant decree was recently signed by Vladimir Putin.
"Of course, the Kremlin claims that they will not be sent on the special military operation. However, we know well what it looks like when contracts are signed. Even without signed contracts, they can be sent to the four Ukrainian regions that the Russian Federation has declared as its territory," notes Wypartowicz.
The interlocutor does not believe in the possibility of signing a quick peace agreement.
"If anything is accomplished, it will take until the end of the year for negotiations. Some consensus must be achieved on both sides. Ukraine, as the victim of the war, will likely demand some concessions from Russia. On the other hand, Russia, occupying about 20 percent of Ukraine and tactically winning on the front, will also demand benefits for itself. The Trump administration will have no choice. It will be forced to make more attempts to end the conflict," summarizes Bartłomiej Wypartowicz.
