Putin's nuclear doctrine revamp sends warning to the West
The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has approved a revised nuclear doctrine. According to the new regulations, a "critical threat" to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and Belarus could justify the use of nuclear weapons. "The doctrine is a response to the American approval of Ukraine's use of ATACMS," comments Polish Lt. Col. (ret.) Maciej Korowaj for WP.
4:59 PM EST, November 19, 2024
The updated doctrine suggests that the basis for a nuclear attack could include "aggression against the Russian Federation and its allies by any non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state," as well as a massive air attack using non-nuclear means, including drones.
In the document signed by Vladimir Putin, it is stated, among other things, that "Russia considers nuclear weapons as a deterrent, whose use is an extreme and last-resort measure."
The decree expands the list of "military threats", which could justify the use of nuclear weapons. Previously, only threats to the very existence of the state were considered. The mentioned attack using conventional missiles or drones may now meet these criteria.
Poland "integrated" into the threat system
Shortly after the document was published, Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, spoke out. He said the changes should be seen as a "definite signal to the West". "It's a signal that warns those countries of the consequences if they participate in an attack on our country by various means, not necessarily nuclear," said Peskov.
According to military analyst Lt. Col. (ret.) Maciej Korowaj, it's the Kremlin's response to U.S. President Joe Biden's approval for using the long-range American weapons supplied to Ukraine for deep strikes into Russia.
"The doctrine has a psychological and practical purpose. First, the Russians tested their nuclear capabilities for almost a year, and now they are formally introducing changes to the doctrine. It is more directed at the U.S. than, for example, at our country. But since we have an American base in Redzikowo and about 10,000 American soldiers stationed in Poland, we are 'integrated' into the threat system," says Lt. Col. (ret.) Korowaj to WP.
"The U.S. can decapitate Russia's nuclear capabilities"
The expert recalls that earlier this year, the American nuclear doctrine was approved, although it remains classified.
"This causes a lot of unknowns. The Russians expect that in the event of a strike from their side with a single nuclear missile, the U.S. will respond with a single missile as well. It is likely written in the American doctrine that it is asymmetrical. And here, problems arise for Moscow," comments the military analyst.
What are these problems? "The Russians are unable to decapitate any American nuclear strike. Meanwhile, the U.S. can, with a hybrid strike using precise nuclear and conventional weapons, decapitate the nuclear capabilities of the Russian Federation. To decapitate means to definitively and permanently destroy," believes Lt. Col. (ret.) Korowaj.
He emphasizes that even if the Russians want to use nuclear charges against the U.S., they will not achieve their goals within a nuclear conflict. "A nuclear war is, of course, a theoretical war, but it is based on the realization of issues related to the security of the given country," the expert points out.
"Russia needs Ukraine whole, not contaminated"
According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the aim of the revised nuclear doctrine is to "make potential enemies aware of the inevitability of retaliation for an attack on Russia or its allies." Does this mean that Russia is enabling itself to use nuclear weapons in a war with Ukraine and threatening Poland?
"Theoretically, the Russians do not drop nuclear charges close to their borders and their own troops. An explosion would affect Russian territory and soldiers. Russia needs Ukraine whole, not contaminated. It is supposed to be a food reservoir that in the past has influenced global politics. Striking Poland would also achieve nothing, although it could theoretically happen. However, that too is too close to Russia. Generally, Moscow does not drop atom bombs within a radius of 435 miles from its borders," claims Lt. Col. (ret.) Korowaj.
In the analyst's opinion, the countries of Western Europe should be the most concerned: Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
"These are the countries that have nuclear weapons but lack the arsenal to surpass Russia's nuclear potential. All these countries must cooperate with the United States in the framework of a possible response. Can Russia use nuclear weapons? Theoretically, it can, but from a practical point of view, it gives Moscow nothing," concludes Lt. Col. (ret.) Korowaj.
