Putin scrambles for allies as global ties fray

During the annual BRICS summit, named after the first five member countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, Putin sought to form new alliances. In 2024, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Iran became full members of the organization. After the October summit, new BRICS partners included Algeria, Nigeria, and Uganda, with nine other countries submitting applications for membership.

The Russian dictator needed this symbol on the international stage. Since 2022, the Russian Federation has been consistently losing allies that were its traditional supporters. Countries in Central Asia, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, began to distance themselves from the Kremlin, stating they were not interested in deepening cooperation with Russia. Armenia is also disappointed, believing the Kremlin, the guarantor of peace in Nagorno-Karabakh, betrayed it.

Additionally, the Russian industry is losing customers even within BRICS, which was initially supposed to be an economic alliance based on mutual benefits. Meanwhile, the founding countries — Brazil and India — have abandoned arms and equipment purchases from Russia, showing interest in Western European equipment instead.

Putin has few options left, as he needs active allies who can offer military and economic assistance, not just passive political supporters like China, Serbia, Hungary, or American Republicans.

An interesting case is China, which maintains economic relations with the West while supporting Russia internationally. Russia and China have strengthened their economic and military ties, despite pressure from Western countries for China to join in condemning the invasion.

Global sanctions against Russia benefit China, which buys much cheaper energy resources. Since the onset of the war, the export of Russian coal and oil to China has doubled. Last year, trade between the two countries amounted to $240 billion. On the other hand, Western European countries and the USA are the largest markets for Chinese products. Beijing tries to maintain a balance, favoring Moscow slightly more.

In 2023, Beijing positioned itself as a potential mediator, releasing a document titled "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis," which was intended as a peace plan.

The West and Ukraine treated it very cautiously. It overlooked the issue of withdrawing Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, only mentioning "respect for sovereignty, guarantees of independence, and territorial integrity of all countries." Furthermore, Chinese proposals coincided with Chinese-Russian talks on military cooperation and "referenda", which according to Kremlin propaganda decided the "annexation" of the occupied Ukrainian regions to the Russian Federation.

Beijing denied selling weapons to Russia; there is no evidence of this. However, it supplies vehicles: trucks, off-road vehicles, and motorcycles that the Russian army uses on the Ukrainian front. China is also a source of engines for attack drones, communication equipment, and light drones.

The extent of Putin's desperation in seeking allies to support him materially in the ongoing war is evident from his foreign visits. Two years ago, it would have been unimaginable for him to visit Pyongyang or Hanoi. These were not capitals of significance to the Kremlin, but the situation has changed.

This year, Putin visited China, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and Turkmenistan, where he met with Iranian President Masud Pezeszkian and Belarus and North Korea. These countries did not recognize international sanctions or the International Criminal Court's decisions to arrest Putin in The Hague.

While the first four states decided not to provide military aid, the pariahs of world politics saw this as an opportunity to strengthen economic relations and gain the Kremlin's support on the international stage. This is crucial for both Iran and North Korea, whose economies are technologically backward due to global sanctions. Cooperation with Russia will allow them to develop.

Both countries mainly hope for the transfer of technology and knowledge in the design and construction of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Aviation and intelligence cooperation, especially economic intelligence, are also of great interest.

So far, Putin has only managed to recruit dictators like himself. Even countries that do not recognize sanctions and show friendly neutrality do not want to follow his lead. It is difficult for him to find allies who would openly support him. He tried in the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia and in Venezuela, where he supports the authoritarian president Nicolas Maduro. Everywhere, he was turned away.

The "creation of a new Eurasian architecture of cooperation, indivisible security, and development," as Putin called his project, has yielded little so far, although the West is watching with slight concern the growing polarization in developing countries. Will Putin succeed in building a new axis of evil? Much depends on the role China decides to take. They think pragmatically in Beijing, hence the Kremlin's continuous overtures.

Russia-China relations certainly do not benefit from Putin's and Kim Jong-un's rapprochement. Beijing fears the increase of Russian influence in North Korea. The long-term consequences of this cooperation could increase North Korea's military capabilities, possibly forcing Americans to have an even greater military presence in the region, which could directly threaten Beijing's interests.