Kim Jong-Un rattles sabers: North Korean troops bolster Russia

"If war breaks out, the Republic of Korea will be erased from the map. Because it wants war, we are ready to put an end to its existence," stated the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) this week.

This statement was released in response to propaganda leaflets dropped over North Korea, which Pyongyang accused its southern neighbors of disseminating. As evidence, KCNA published blurry photos of balloons and leaflets. However, the government in Seoul assured that it had nothing to do with the action. If the leaflets were indeed sent from the south, they might have been the work of South Korean activists.

This incident is not unprecedented. It is true that in the past, activists from the south have sent balloons with attached propaganda materials to the north. These materials informed about North Korean camps and depicted life in South Korea. For example, in 2020, the leaflets compared Kim Jong-un's starving subjects to the smiling citizens of South Korea.

North Korea has reciprocated and continues to do so—over the past four months alone, it has sent over 6,000 balloons to the south with various waste. Some even contained feces. In response, South Korea began broadcasting international news and K-pop music via loudspeakers.

This time, however, the "balloon war" had more severe consequences. The North Korean army has blown up sections of two unused roads connecting the two countries, and artillery and missile units have been deployed near the border. Pyongyang also put border garrisons on heightened alert.

KCNA reported that over 1.4 million young people volunteered to join or return to the Korean People's Army. This was supposed to be a spontaneous response to the "serious provocation," namely, the leaflet action.

Putting the army on alert and blowing up various facilities is also not new. In 2020, North Korea demolished a liaison office building right on the border. At that time, the army was also alert, and students, pupils, and farmers enlisted en masse. Even earlier, in 2017, KCNA claimed that nearly 3.5 million people volunteered in response to US pressure on North Korea's nuclear program.

Then, as now, Pyongyang portrayed this mass enlistment as a demonstration of national unity motivated by the desire to defend the country and retaliate. Seoul responded similarly by putting its own units on alert, and the Ministry of Defense in Seoul warned that if any South Korean citizen is harmed in a clash, North Korea will witness the "end of its regime".

Recent events are part of a series of defiant actions by Kim Jong-un.

In early October, the dictator warned of the potential use of nuclear weapons in conflicts with South Korea and the United States, blaming both countries for escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

"We will not hesitate to use all offensive capabilities against our enemies," Kim Jong-Un announced.

Also alarming are the changes in the North Korean constitution. A new clause declares South Korea an enemy country. Previously, the North Korean doctrine advocated for a peaceful reunification of the two states with the introduction of communism. Now the constitution explicitly describes South Korea as a hostile state that must be conquered by force.

South Korean experts note that Kim took this step after feeling emboldened by the rapprochement with Russia. In June, Russia and North Korea signed a treaty on comprehensive strategic partnership. The agreement between Putin and Kim Jong-un includes a mutual defense clause that obligates both parties to support each other in the event of external aggression.

One manifestation of this closeness is not only the delivery of artillery shells to the Kremlin but also the dispatch of several thousand North Korean soldiers to Russia. They are currently undergoing training. It is possible that by the end of 2024, they may be transferred to the front or border areas with Ukraine.

The regime, with nuclear power backing from Russia, seems confident. However, as emphasized by Prof. Kang Dong-wan, a political science and diplomacy professor at Dong-a University in Busan, escalation is unlikely.

"The North Korean regime is based on a politics of fear and needs an external enemy," assessed Prof. Kang in an interview with the BBC. "Whenever tensions rise, North Korea emphasizes external threats to solidify loyalty to the regime."

Kim is also aware of the weakness of his own army and limits himself to provocations like shelling uninhabited islands or blowing up roads. This is mere saber-rattling, because in a direct confrontation, the North Korean army cannot compete with its southern neighbor. In most areas, the development of its armed forces has stalled at the 1970s level.

The over one-million-strong army is the fourth largest and looks formidable on paper. The Global Firepower ranking, compiled solely based on statistics, places the North Korean army at 36th, with the navy in the top ten. However, a closer inspection tells a different story.

The primary tank type is the Chonma-ho, from versions 1 to 3, of which Kim Jong-un has about 1,200. These are modeled on the Soviet T-62, whose production ended 40 years ago. The Koreans also have about 1,000 original Soviet T-62s. The remaining tanks are original T-72s or their local variants.

The situation is much worse for mechanized units, which practically do not exist in the north. The Koreans mainly have old Chinese VTT-323s and Soviet BMP-1s. Artillery development also halted decades ago. The main artillery piece is the M-20 howitzer, dating back to the 1930s, and the D-74, two decades newer and produced in Korea under license.

The Air Force is truly a relic, with its backbone consisting of 120 Chengdu J-7s and 106 Shenyang J-5s. The former are licensed MiG-21s, and the latter are MiG-17Fs. The Koreans also have about a hundred Shenyang J-6s, Chinese-produced MiG-19s. The aircraft has not been modernized for over two decades, thus presenting no combat value. Similarly, the 80 bomber H-5s, licensed Il-28s, are antiquated.

Mobilizing such an army against the well-organized and modern South Korean army could end in disaster and the collapse of the Kim dynasty regime. Kim Jong-un knows this, so he only waves his saber, with Vladimir Putin as an ally.