Passenger plane downed: Was it a Pantsir-S1 mistake?

The Embraer-190 shows numerous fragment marks, and recordings from inside the plane surfaced online shortly after it was hit. The crew and passengers who survived are indeed fortunate. The missile appeared small or approached from behind, triggering its proximity fuse to explode behind the plane, with only some fragments hitting the aircraft.

The aircraft might have disintegrated mid-air if the missile had come from the side or was larger. Proximity fuses are designed to detonate the explosive warhead when near the target (usually within a few feet). They use radio waves, infrared, or lasers to measure distance, and detonation occurs if the reflected signal returns quickly enough.

Given that the missile's warhead size can dictate a destructive range of several dozen or even hundreds of feet, the struck aircraft is typically destroyed or heavily damaged. In the case of the Embraer-190, it was likely the latter, resulting in the loss of part of the control surfaces, among other things.

Pantsir-S1 systems are deployed around Grozny, which, during the flight of the Embraer-190, were intended to fend off attacks by Ukrainian drones like the Aeroprakt A-22 (a modified light aircraft). The Russian operator mistook the Embraer-190 for a drone. Burnt boosters resembling those from two-stage 57E6 rockets were found near Grozny.

Russian Pantsir-S1 systems were introduced to the Russian Armed Forces only in 2012, even though development began in the 1990s. The Pantsirs were designed as a cost-effective alternative to the 2K22 Tunguska artillery-missile system. Similar cost savings were sought in France, where the new system was mounted on a truck chassis to reduce expenses.

Funding difficulties nearly halted the project, but support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reinvigorated it. The UAE became interested in the promising system, and thanks to their investment, the project was completed, with the first Pantsir-S1 systems going to foreign clients instead of Russia. The UAE began using this system in the early 21st century.

Pantsir-S1 is equipped with two radars, each playing a distinct role: one detects targets, and the other guides weapons to them. Its arsenal includes two 30 mm automatic cannons capable of firing 2,500 rounds per minute, as well as anti-aircraft missile launchers.

The gun armament allows for varied ammunition types and engages targets within about 2.5 miles. The missile component consists of 12 launchers, split into two sections of six each, which can operate simultaneously. The guided missiles use radio-command guidance and can hit targets up to 12 miles away, at altitudes up to 9 miles. They feature a 44-pound fragmentation warhead with 11 pounds of explosives, which is sufficient for a fighter jet but possibly insufficient for a large transport or passenger aircraft.

While the Pantsir-S1 works well against helicopters, it is less effective against small drones like the Polish Warmate or modern cruise missiles such as the Storm Shadow, which have advanced stealth technology. It is clear that Russia still has significant issues with object identification, as this is not the first incident of shooting down a passenger plane. We can recall the incident involving flight MH-17 on July 17, 2014.