NATO drills stir Russian fears of Baltic tensions
Main Russian propagandists have amplified the threats of Nikolai Patrushev, an adviser to Putin. He claims that NATO is practicing scenarios for taking over the Kaliningrad region. "Russia fears losing control over the Baltic Sea routes and facing limitations on the so-called shadow fleet's operations," explains Dr. Wojciech Siegień.
Much of the information shared by Russian media and government representatives is likely untrue. Such reports may be part of an information war conducted by the Russian Federation.
"For the second year in a row, NATO is holding the largest exercises in decades near our borders, where it is practicing scenarios of offensive actions over a large area—from Vilnius to Odesa, the takeover of the Kaliningrad region, the blocking of shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas, and preventive strikes on the permanent bases of Russian nuclear deterrent forces," said Nikolai Patrushev in a recently published interview with the Russian agency TASS.
The former chief of the Federal Security Service, now serving as an advisor to Vladimir Putin, expressed in a detailed interview that he believes signs of success are emerging in Russia’s campaign in Ukraine. He accused major European capitals — including Brussels, Berlin, and Paris — of mobilizing military efforts against Russia and indulging in apocalyptic nuclear rhetoric. He identified three figures as key threats to Russia’s security: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
After the publication of the interview, Patrushev's claims were picked up by leading Russian propagandists, such as Vladimir Solovyov. Retired General Andrei Gurulev, now a politician, wrote on Telegram that the war with Ukraine must be won to the end, or another one will break out. He also complained that threats are coming from all directions against Russia.
Why is Russia threatening and making accusations?
Dr. Wojciech Siegień, a Russia expert, points out that Patrushev's comments are closely related to Russian concerns about control over maritime routes, which are strategically important for Russian trade. Kaliningrad is close to Poland, but the message is primarily targeted at the United Kingdom and other EU countries capable of controlling the exit from the Baltic Sea basin, says Siegień.
He emphasizes that Baltic ports are crucial for the Kremlin—they are used, among other things, to supply the Kaliningrad region and service the port in St. Petersburg.
Russia carefully observes NATO's exercise scenarios and fears their consequences, especially since part of its "shadow fleet," which consists of tankers transporting Russian oil despite sanctions, operates in this area, adds Siegień.
What is NATO doing? Here's what irritates Russia
Patrushev did not specify which NATO exercises he was referring to. However, in 2025, the Alliance conducted several significant maneuvers. Among the largest was "Steadfast Dart 25" in February—involving about 10,000 soldiers from nine member states. The exercises aimed to test NATO's ability to quickly deploy forces in Romania and Bulgaria without direct U.S. support.
In March, the "Joint Viking 2025" operation in Norway took place, involving 10,000 soldiers from Norway, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, the UK, and the USA. They trained in protecting NATO's northern flank.
Meanwhile, until the end of April, there was "Baltic Guard"—exercises involving the patrolling of areas where pipelines, power cables, and fiber optics are located. This was a response to sabotage incidents near Finland and Estonia, for which Russia was suspected. NATO made no secret of the exercise goals and, on the contrary, published official communications in Russian.
At the end of March, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Putin: "If anyone were to miscalculate and think they can get away with an attack on Poland or on any other ally, they will be met with the full force of this fierce alliance. Our reaction will be devastating."
Russian politicians have repeatedly frightened their citizens with the imminent entry of NATO into Kaliningrad. In the summer of 2022, such rumors sparked panic buying, rising prices, and stockpiling of essentials like sugar and fuel. Russian companies were losing out due to the lack of tourists. The governor of the Kaliningrad region held a press conference to prevent a crisis.
"Now our main task is to tell the whole country that you can fly to Kaliningrad safely. Poles with machine guns are not wandering the streets here." Sometimes I just read some nonsense. I read handouts from the Polish media and just think: What kind of brainwashing is this?" a Russian official thundered at the time.
