Liberals secure historic fourth term amid Trump tensions
The Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) emerged victorious in the federal House of Commons elections on Monday, according to preliminary data from Elections Canada. For the first time in 114 years, the Liberals are set to govern for a fourth consecutive term. Notably, Donald Trump opposed the Liberals.
Incumbent Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took over as the Liberals' leader on March 9 and ran for parliamentary elections for the first time, won in his Ottawa riding of Nepean.
Canadians elected 343 parliamentarians in single-member districts. A majority government requires 172 seats. About 20 minutes after the last polling stations closed (in British Columbia and Yukon), media outlets reported that, based on early estimates, the Liberals would form the government once again. However, it remained uncertain whether it would be a majority or minority government. Commentators on the public broadcaster CBC noted that the electoral contest mainly took place between the Liberals and the Conservatives, resembling political dynamics in the U.S.
The Trump effect in Canadian politics
By the end of December 2024, the Conservative Party had about a 25-percentage-point lead over the Liberals. Following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announcement of his resignation in January, Liberal ratings began to climb. U.S. President Donald Trump's criticisms of the Liberals helped solidify their position, and the election of Mark Carney, former governor of the central banks of Canada and the UK, as the new party leader was well-received by voters. By the second half of March, the LPC's ratings surpassed those of the Conservatives.
During election night coverage on CBC, former Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti remarked that such a dramatic change would have been unforeseen as of December. Former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland expressed her excitement about the party's resurgence at a critical time for the nation.
In the past two years, there has been considerable discussion in Canada about foreign attempts to influence elections, with mention of countries like Russia, China, and India. Recently, the most notable interference was attributed to the U.S. president. On Monday, Trump used social media to urge Canadians to elect someone with the "strength and wisdom" to join Canada with the United States.
The biggest losers of the election were the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), which, according to preliminary data from Elections Canada, will send only seven or eight representatives to parliament—less than half of what they had in the previous term. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced on election night that he would step down from his position.
It's worth noting that the Canadian Senate is not elected. Senators are appointed by the prime minister and confirmed by the governor general, who represents the British monarch. Canada is a constitutional monarchy.
