Europe's weapon shortage and fading U.S. support challenge Ukraine
The most plausible scenario for the situation in Ukraine is one reminiscent of Georgia: a lack of military support, enduring instability, and a gradual return to the Russian sphere, according to a geopolitical analysis by the American bank JPMorgan Chase.
The center suggests that Europe is running low on weapons, Ukraine is facing a shortage of soldiers, and the United States is losing patience, which may force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to a settlement with Russia this year. This agreement would cease hostilities but would not constitute a comprehensive peace deal.
At its current rate of gain, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about…118 years. So Putin will aim to cut a deal that is favorable to his overall goal to eventually control Kyiv, states JPMorgan Chase.
The longevity of this agreement will depend on whether Putin is satisfied with the concessions from Ukraine and the West, as well as the strength of security commitments. These factors are intertwined: the weaker the security guarantees given to Ukraine, the greater the concessions required, potentially involving neutrality, demilitarization, disarmament, or territorial loss.
JPMorgan Chase envisions four possible scenarios, estimating that the most favorable one for Ukraine has only a 15 percent chance. In this scenario, Ukraine would mirror the situation in South Korea: it would not join NATO or fully regain its territory, but a small contingent of European troops would be stationed in the country, accompanied by American guarantees of military and intelligence support. Meanwhile, 80 percent of the territory still under Kyiv’s control would pursue greater stability, prosperity, and democracy.
A slightly less favorable scenario, akin to the situation in Israel, involves lasting military and economic support without a substantial presence of foreign military forces. JPMorgan Chase assigns this a 20 percent probability. In this scenario, Ukraine could defend itself and modernize militarily. However, it would face the ongoing threat of war resumption. For Putin, economic benefits would include the lifting of sanctions and strengthened relations with the U.S.
Worst scenario: Belarusian
The most likely scenario, according to JPMorgan Chase, has a 50 percent chance and mirrors the situation in Georgia. "In the absence of both foreign troops and strong military support, Ukraine will experience ongoing instability, stunted growth and recovery, waning foreign support over time, and the effective derailment of its Western integration (i.e., EU and NATO membership), with gradual drift back into Russia’s orbit," the forecast states.
The worst-case scenario would resemble that of Belarus. With a 15 percent probability, JPMorgan Chase predicts that the United States would leave Ukraine to manage on its own, while Europe would fail to take decisive action. Meanwhile, Putin would maintain maximalist demands, pushing for Ukraine’s capitulation and transforming it into a vassal state. "In this scenario, Russia will have effectively won the war, divided the West, and irrevocably upended the post-World War II world order," according to JPMorgan Chase.
