Climate models warn of dramatic 13°F rise despite actions
Even if we limit greenhouse gas emissions, it's possible that we still won't stop climate warming, and the atmosphere could warm by more than 5°F. The latest climate models indicate that moderate emissions might also lead to a global temperature increase of up to 13°F.
Scientists have developed a climate model to study potential scenarios for the next 1,000 years. The research results suggest that even with moderate greenhouse gas emissions, there is a 10-percent risk of Earth's temperature rising by 13°F over the next 200 years.
Can we stop climate change?
Even if we reduced emissions to zero, current models indicate a 10-percent risk that the atmosphere would still warm by more than 5°F. This rise in global temperature involves a gradual increase in the planet's average temperature, which drives changes in ecosystems. The phenomenon has a range of consequences that will affect all Earth's inhabitants. Higher temperatures lead to more intense and extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, and heat waves.
People worldwide are already feeling the consequences of the climate catastrophe. Just last year, powerful storms and tornadoes hit the USA, Valencia experienced a massive flood, and Typhoon Yagi had a tragically severe impact. The situation is dire globally, including in our country, which is not immune to the consequences of rising temperatures. Just recall the September floods.
A global temperature rise of 5°F would significantly impact the climate in various parts of the world. Rome would struggle with hot summers, where temperatures exceed 104°F, along with intense droughts and fires. Meanwhile, New York would experience extreme summer heat, increased hurricane intensity, and rising sea levels, potentially affecting coastal areas.
A rise of 13 degrees Fahrenheit involves changing the world as we know it
Mediterranean countries, already exposed to hot and dry summers, would face extreme heat and temperatures exceeding 122°F, posing a severe threat to human health and destabilizing agriculture. In New York, a temperature rise of 13°F would lead to regular heat waves reaching up to 113°F, and rising sea levels would result in massive flooding. Humanity would face severe social, health, and environmental problems.
Should we bid farewell to Venice or New York?
Higher global temperatures accelerate glacier melting, affecting sea and ocean levels. If the temperature increases by 5 degrees Fahrenheit, it is estimated that sea levels could rise by about 2 to 4 feet. However, if the temperature increases by 13 degrees, it will lead to significant and catastrophic geographical changes, including changes in shorelines and the submersion of entire cities and islands. Sea levels could then rise by 16 to 33 feet or more.
Changes in weather patterns, warmer ocean waters, and reduced albedo, meaning the ice's ability to reflect sunlight, affect the climate worldwide and the functioning of ecosystems. The temperature increase impacts our planet and presents humanity with significant challenges related to adapting to new conditions.
Climate feedback loop
Aerosol emissions that counteract the greenhouse effect create uncertainty about climate sensitivity. Ganopolski's model also considers long-term feedback effects, such as releasing CO2 and methane from permafrost and wetlands. As the New Scientist portal reported, previous models didn't consider these factors, which could significantly impact forecasts.
Although the 23rd century seems distant to us, it will be an everyday reality associated with living in an era of climate catastrophe for future generations. According to scientists, reducing emissions may help avoid a temperature rise of 5°F, but it is already too late to keep it below 3.6°F.
