Hottest year on record raises alarms for climate future
Climate organizations are warning that last year was the hottest on record. The global average temperature was higher than the averages at the end of the 19th century before the widespread burning of fossil fuels began. What does this mean for us?
The Earth is inevitably approaching a breach of the global warming limit of 34 degrees Fahrenheit, according to two significant studies published on February 10th in "Nature Climate Change" by European and Canadian scientists. These analyses suggest that our planet's climate is entering a new, alarming phase. What risks do we face?
The threshold that crossing will initiate irreversible changes on Earth
Climate organizations worldwide agree that last year was the hottest on record. The average global temperature in 2024 was about 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the averages at the end of the 19th century before large-scale fossil fuel use began.
Under the Paris Agreement of 2015, we aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the temperature rise to no more than 34 degrees Fahrenheit. However, in 2024, the average temperature on Earth temporarily exceeded this limit. This does not yet mean the threshold set in Paris has been breached, as the agreement's targets are measured over decades, not through short-term increases in temperatures above 34 degrees Fahrenheit.
Even a month or a year can mean crossing a critical threshold
New studies have taken a different approach. Analyzing historical climate data, these studies indicate that recent very warm years may signal a long-term breach of the permissible warming threshold. The result of these studies is alarming: the record-breaking year 2024 indicates that the Earth may indeed be crossing the 34-degree Fahrenheit threshold, beyond which catastrophic changes in natural systems may occur.
According to scientists, the variability in global temperatures from year to year means that climate scientists do not consider a single year exceeding 34 degrees Fahrenheit a failure of the Paris Agreement. The research team from both Europe and Canada suggests that even just a month or a year with warming around 34 degrees Fahrenheit can mean a long-term crossing of this critical threshold by the Earth.
Only zero CO2 emissions will halt global warming
Studies conducted in Europe and Canada separately analyzed whether a year with warming above 34 degrees Fahrenheit signals crossing the agreement threshold. Both studies utilized climate model observations and simulations, with the European study analyzing historical warming trends and the Canadian study examining monthly data.
Both analyses show that even with strict emission reductions, the Earth will most likely exceed the 34-degree Fahrenheit threshold. Worse, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, indicating we are not heading in the right direction, and science shows that we must achieve zero CO2 emissions to stop global warming.
What awaits us if we cross the critical threshold?
If the Earth has indeed already crossed the critical threshold, we will need to achieve "negative emissions", meaning we must remove more greenhouse gases from the atmosphere than we emit, which presents a colossal challenge. The impacts of climate change are already being felt worldwide, and the situation will worsen for future generations. Unique ecosystems are already suffering from rising temperatures, and sea levels threaten coastlines.
Fires, floods, and extreme weather conditions, especially heat waves, are becoming more frequent and severe, which strains nature, society, and the economy. Despite this, the study authors believe progress is visible, especially in generating renewable electricity and reducing fossil fuel consumption.
Scientific analyses demonstrate how far we are from effectively combating climate change. They show that we must urgently adapt to global warming. According to the authors of the analysis, wealthier countries should support poorer ones, which are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
