China's nuclear carrier ambitions set to reshape naval power

Currently, only two countries operate nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. The United States has 11 such carriers (Nimitz-class, gradually being replaced by the Gerald R. Ford class), and France has one, the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier.

Construction of its successor, provisionally named PANG (porte-avions de nouvelle génération, French for new-generation aircraft carrier), has already started.

Both American and French aircraft carriers are equipped with nuclear power plants and are CATOBAR class vessels. This design allows aircraft to launch using catapults and land with the help of arresting cables, providing these carriers with significant combat capabilities.

China currently operates three aircraft carriers: Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian (which is undergoing sea trials). The newest and largest, displacing about 88,000 tons, Fujian, is also a CATOBAR class vessel; however, unlike its American and French counterparts, it has conventional propulsion.

Beijing plans to use nuclear propulsion on the fourth carrier, currently under construction and known as the 004.

Information about this vessel began to surface around 2018. The China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, responsible for its construction, revealed that the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier would be among its projects, and industry reports noted the start of steel cutting for the hull of this large new vessel.

The new aircraft carrier is expected to displace over 121,000 tons, slightly more than American supercarriers, making it the largest warship in the world.

For years, the 004 type aircraft carrier project was shrouded in speculation due to a lack of official information. This changed with a recent discovery made by a team from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California.

According to Space 24, American scientists analyzing work on the outskirts of Leshan suspected a plutonium production reactor was being built. However, they concluded that China is constructing a prototype reactor for a large warship.

This claim is supported by satellite image analysis, available tender documentation, environmental studies, and reports of complaints from local residents.

Though there is still a long way from building a prototype reactor to completing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the introduction of such vessels into the Chinese fleet could significantly alter the balance of power.

Aircraft carriers like Liaoning and Shandong, while impressive and important for propaganda, have limited capabilities. They feature a smaller air group and autonomy, and aircraft take off using a bow ramp—a part of the deck resembling a ski jump.

This simplifies design but impacts combat capabilities. Heavier aircraft, such as early warning and control planes, cannot use it. Combat aircraft must take off as light as possible, meaning they carry incomplete weapons and fuel supplies.

This is evident in materials provided by the Chinese Navy, where J-15 aircraft taking off from these carriers are either unarmed or carry only lightweight short-range air-to-air missiles.

The problem can be partially addressed with UPAZ-1A kits acquired from Russia, which allow for "buddy tanking"—air refueling by another combat aircraft, not a specialized tanker. While Beijing possesses these kits, their use on carriers has not been confirmed.

This is why China's military strategy for potential conflict with the U.S. has long relied on the Soviet-era A2/AD concept (anti-access/area denial). As noted by Paweł Behrendt on the Konflikty service, this was "an attempt to apply in-depth defense known from land operations to the sea."

The introduction of Chinese nuclear-powered aircraft carriers could shift this strategy. Paweł Behrendt suggests that China may not replicate the American model, where aircraft carriers are the main strike force at sea, supported by other vessels.

According to the British think-tank IISS (The International Institute for Strategic Studies), the backbone of China's naval strike force could be missile destroyers, such as the 055 type ships equipped with YJ-21 ballistic missiles. These ships, the largest in their class, displace up to 14,000 tons and are armed with 112 universal vertical launch systems.

Nuclear aircraft carriers would be reduced to providing escort and air support, with missile destroyers leading the strike force.

Such structured fleets could support potential landings on Taiwan, combat enemy fleets, and execute powerful missile strikes on U.S. bases in the Pacific, including Guam and Wake.