China faces deepening demographic crisis as population falls
China's population has decreased for the third consecutive year. In 2024, the number of deaths exceeded births by 1.39 million. Rapid urbanization, rising living costs, and gender inequalities are deepening the demographic crisis, and Chinese authorities are implementing programs to increase birth rates.
According to data from China's statistical bureau, China's population decreased by 1.39 million in 2024 to 1.408 billion today. This marks the third consecutive year that deaths have outnumbered births. Despite a slight increase in the birth rate, experts warn that the rate of population decline may accelerate in the coming years.
Economic impacts of the population decline
The declining population poses a significant challenge for the Chinese economy. A decreasing number of working-age people means shrinking labor resources and an aging society generates rising healthcare costs and burdens the pension system.
In 2024, 9.54 million children were born, while 10.93 million died. The birth rate increased from 6.39 to 6.77 per 1,000 residents, but the article states that this still isn't enough to alleviate the demographic crisis.
The decline in births in China results from decades of the one-child policy (1980–2015) and rapid urbanization. Living in cities, where child care and education costs are higher than rural areas, discourages young people from starting families. In 2024, the urban population increased by 10.83 million, while in rural areas, it decreased by 3.2 million.
Economic difficulties, rising living costs, and an uncertain job market also exacerbate the reluctance of young Chinese to start families. An additional issue is gender discrimination and social expectations that women should primarily be responsible for raising children.
Without structural changes, such as improving the social safety net and gender equality, reversing the downward trend seems unlikely, warns Professor Yun Zhou from the University of Michigan.
Chinese authorities are taking steps to increase fertility. In 2024, classes promoting a positive image of marriage and parenthood were introduced, alongside efforts to encourage marriages at a younger age. Nevertheless, the number of women of reproductive age is expected to decrease by over two-thirds by the end of the century, posing a significant challenge to the pension system, which, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences, may become insolvent by 2035.
