Yellowstone supervolcano: Tiny eruption risk, colossal impact

Mark Stelten, a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey and deputy scientific director of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, has sought to estimate the likelihood of the supervolcano lying dormant beneath Yellowstone Park awakening. As he acknowledged, forecasting such events is not straightforward. It's insufficient only to consider past eruptions and their intervals.

We must combine these types of forecasts with real-time monitoring of the volcano to assess the state of the volcanic system, emphasized the scientist, as quoted by "Newsweek".

The annual probability of a Yellowstone volcano eruption is estimated to be about 0.001 percent. According to the scientists, this estimate is "probably an overestimate for the short term." Scientists highlight no signs of an impending eruption because the magma system beneath Yellowstone is primarily solid.

Stelten points out that although we can be somewhat reassured for now, the period of tranquility may eventually end, requiring scientists to be vigilant for signs of an impending eruption.

If the Yellowstone supervolcano were to erupt, the impact would be felt not only in America but would also have global repercussions. Regionally, ash would descend from the sky, and the global climate could suffer for years or even decades.

The surrounding states, including Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, would face pyroclastic flows — a dangerous mix of hot lava blocks, pumice, ash, and volcanic gas with high density. While people may not become extinct, extreme weather conditions and other effects could severely impact humanity.

Scientists suggest that a single large eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano is unlikely. Multiple eruptions occurring at relatively short intervals are much more probable.