Xi Jinping's strategic European tour aims to bolster Sino-European ties

The visit, lasting until May 10, marks Xi's first European tour since 2019, when he visited France, Italy, and Monaco.

Dr. Brona points out that Xi Jinping’s trip to Serbia holds symbolic significance, commemorating the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo War intervention, which occurred on May 7. This attack resulted in the deaths of three Chinese nationals. "This event has significantly impacted Chinese politics. Comments from China often describe NATO as an antiquated relic of the Cold War, unsuited for modern times and more harmful than beneficial," Dr. Brona notes.

Dr Brona views Hungary as the EU member most openly favourable toward collaboration with China. While Budapest sometimes hinders the EU's unified policy stance toward China, it simultaneously emphasizes its robust political alliance outside the Union to Brussels.

"Xi's meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Orban is intended to demonstrate China’s appreciation of political loyalty and the potential benefits of further cooperation," Dr Brona explains.

"Hungary could serve as China’s Plan B," the Jagiellonian University lecturer suggests, explaining that if the EU were to impose anti-dumping duties on electric car production, Chinese corporations could relocate factories to Hungary. This move would exempt their products from EU duties. Consequently, Xi Jinping's visit to Budapest might see the signing of new investment agreements.

When asked if Hungary and Serbia could be considered Chinese loyalists, Dr Brona confirmed that both states refrain from criticizing China’s policies, including human rights issues in Xinjiang and the erosion of Hong Kong's political system and civil liberties. "Serbia and Hungary show a degree of loyalty to China, maintaining amicable relations irrespective of Beijing's policies. Despite Belgrade’s aspirations for EU membership and Budapest being a member, constructing a railway line connecting their capitals, part of the Belt and Road Initiative, raises questions about China's efficacy," he observes.

Dr Brona anticipates challenging discussions for Xi Jinping at the Elysee Palace, noting France's leading role over the past year in advocating for a blockade on Chinese product imports into Europe, notably in the automotive sector. "Paris perceives this as a threat to its industry, marking a significant shift in French policy that concerns Beijing," he says. Previously, Franco-Chinese relations were notably positive, as seen in agreements for Airbus aircraft and agricultural and food products purchases.

Dr. Brona underscores China's reliance on robust economic ties, especially with the world's wealthiest countries. "Xi Jinping is keen on enhancing production capacities, but the challenging economic climate hampers Chinese companies' ability to offload surpluses domestically, necessitating the search for foreign markets," he states. He predicts substantial repercussions for China-EU relations if France successfully pushes the EU to impose anti-dumping duties in the automotive or medical sectors. Additionally, he notes a significant downturn in Chinese exports to Europe by about 100 billion euros in 2023, marking a considerable impact on the Chinese economy.

The discussions in Paris are expected to touch on political issues, principally China's appeal for Europe to adopt strategic autonomy and decrease its reliance on the USA, alongside the war in Ukraine. "President Emmanuel Macron aims to include China in the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland in June. However, China's stance of avoiding peace talks without Russia's participation makes their involvement unlikely, especially in this initiative where Russia's attendance seems implausible," Dr. Brona speculates. He also foresees potential dialogues on enhancing cooperation between France, China, and Germany, as well as the establishment of EU-China dialogues.