Wisconsin's swing vote: Deciding the White House fate again
In the great state of Wisconsin, whoever wins here will take the White House, say Democrats and Republicans in Milwaukee in unison. Over the past two decades, this has indeed been the case. In the last week of the presidential campaign, the state is experiencing a real influx of politicians.
4:04 PM EST, November 3, 2024
Wisconsin is one of the seven so-called swing states, meaning states where it's still uncertain which candidate will win, and at the same time, it's a state where the results will decide the fate of the presidency in the U.S. In the last 20 years, only one candidate won here with a significant margin and yet ultimately won the elections. That was Barack Obama, who decisively won against Senator John McCain in 2008 and defeated Mitt Romney in 2012. In 2016, the state 'turned' and fell into Trump's hands. The billionaire won with a margin of less than 1% of the votes—just over 20,000 votes.
The same was true in 2020. However, that time, the residents of Wisconsin chose Joe Biden, who defeated the incumbent president by a similar margin. Professor Phillip Rocco and John D. Johnson from the Political Science Department at Marquette University in Milwaukee agree that the same is expected this year. Both focus their work on studying the habits and views of voters from this key state.
"It all comes down to that 1% of undecided voters," says Johnson. "Our surveys don't provide a definitive answer on who will win. These elections are different in several ways compared to previous ones," he adds. What are those differences?
One of the factors that differentiate the 2020 elections from the current ones is the higher turnout during early voting, this time encouraged by both Republicans and Democrats. In 2020, mainly Democrats urged early voting. During these elections, personal early voting is particularly popular. What does it involve?
What does early voting in the U.S. look like?
"In Milwaukee alone, we have 10 locations where you can vote before November 5th," explains Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson to Wirtualna Polska. "So far (we're talking on Friday morning, November 1st), over 80,000 votes have been cast. These are already record values," he says.
"The polling stations remain open until Sunday, November 3rd. People place their ballots in sealed envelopes, which will then wait to be opened until November 5th, remaining in a secure location. Only then will the counting begin, which will take significantly longer than summarizing the results from votes cast directly on Tuesday," he emphasizes.
How will this affect the final results? "That's what remains a mystery. Previously, we could assume that most of the early cast votes would go to the Democrats. Now it's uncertain," explains Professor Rocco.
Turnout is key
The second factor that may influence the results in the state is turnout. Does a high or low turnout favor any of the candidates? In this case, there is also no clear answer.
Both major parties strive for the highest possible turnout. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are calling for people to vote. "What differentiates the 2020 elections from the current ones is once again a change in strategy among Republicans. They have decided to take a risky move to reach out to people who usually don't vote. Often these are people distrustful of the authorities who consciously choose not to participate in the election because they don't find any candidate representing them," explains John Johnson.
"In Pennsylvania, Republicans have even reached out to Amish communities. They are also trying this tactic in Wisconsin. What the outcome will be, we'll find out only when we learn the results," he adds.
Democrats, on the other hand, have taken a different route. "They are aware of the state's structure. That's why their actions are focused on the two most populous counties in the state: Milwaukee and Dane," says Professor Rocco.
"Democrats in Madison, the state capital, expect up to 90% of the votes. Milwaukee is also traditionally blue, and a strong win for Harris here can be expected. However, Democrats are also trying to capture votes in counties where the margin in favor of any candidate is minimal. These are the so-called WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington)," he adds.
Morning turn
Scientists point out one more thing. The fact that the expected difference between candidates could be within 20,000 votes suggests they are anticipating a similar effect as in 2020.
The first results in the state indicated a victory for Donald Trump. The situation changed in favor of Joe Biden only in the morning when information about mail-in votes from Milwaukee came in.
"The situation will likely look similar in these elections. These votes could prove decisive," summarizes Professor Rocco.
