Winter's woes may push Ukrainians toward Russian concessions
Winter may have a significant impact on Ukrainians' attitudes towards territorial concessions to Russia, "The Washington Post" wrote on Thursday. As highlighted, many Ukrainians are already tired of the nearly two-and-a-half-year-long war with Russia and are willing to make concessions provided they receive guarantees of Ukraine's membership in NATO.
6:14 AM EDT, September 27, 2024
"The Washington Post" referred to a senior Ukrainian official who wished to remain anonymous and acknowledged that concerns about the upcoming winter are real. "My biggest fear is that people go through this kind of winter, there will be zero way to find consensus among the population," he told the newspaper.
Challenges faced by Ukrainian society
The upcoming winter may prove to be the most challenging for Ukrainian society not only because of the continuous Russian missile attacks but mainly due to damage to the country's energy infrastructure caused by the war lasting over two years.
Results of sociological research
Anton Hrushetskyi, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology director, confirmed these concerns. His team conducted research that showed that this summer, about 32% of respondents were considering giving up territories occupied by Russia.
However, if Ukraine were to gain NATO membership, 57% of people would be willing to make such concessions. In May 2023, only 10% of those surveyed were ready to accept the loss of occupied lands.
"The burden of war, exacerbated by winter, changes people," summarized Hrushetskyi.
Up to 20 hours a day without power
The Russians are targeting critical infrastructure, aiming for its collapse. According to the most optimistic scenario, Ukraine might experience up to four power outages per day over significant areas during winter. Another, darker scenario, involves more than 20 hours without power.
Some losses are being repaired on an ongoing basis. This year, the largest Ukrainian energy company, DTEK, reported that 90% of coal-fired power plants have been destroyed or damaged. "The company has set a goal to repair 70% of the damage before the onset of winter," informed its CEO Maksym Timchenko.
Support from the European Union
The European Union has committed to providing $300 million for the repairs. However, concerns about insufficient support from the West remain. Everyone in Ukraine remembers how the aid package for Ukraine got held up in the U.S. Congress last winter.
Delays in military support deliveries were said to have cost Ukraine nearly 9 gigawatts of energy, which was about half of the country’s energy capacity.
In summary, concerns about the upcoming winter remain unresolved, and the prospect of difficult months ahead only exacerbates them.
