Will Ukraine stage a comeback? "Preparing brigades for new operations"
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on Friday, citing Western diplomats and military strategists, an exhausted Ukraine needs time to rebuild its potential. The country may only be able to launch a substantive counter-offensive against Russian forces by 2025.
Despite the costly and prolonged campaign to repel Russia's forces, the front line has slightly shifted. However, economic and military support from the U.S. and Europe remains uncertain, homegrown political division intensifies, and Ukrainian society's morale dwindles, the New York-based newspaper warns.
The Wall Street Journal suggests that currently, Ukrainian forces may be preparing for a long-term containment of any further Russian progress on the front.
Mounting tension between President and Commander-in-Chief
Given the conversion of the Russian economy to war, the deadlock over the Ukrainian aid package in the U.S., and issues with a new aid tranche from the EU which may be reduced or delayed, Ukraine's capacity to reclaim more territory seems uncertain.
Meanwhile, in Kyiv, tension is mounting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny. On the front lines, some troops are conserving ammunition due to uncertainty over supply duration. Additionally, Russia has matched Ukraine in drone usage.
"We're preparing brigades for new operations"
The newspaper emphasizes that Russia has shown no signs of relinquishing its original war objective of capturing Ukraine.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that any ceasefire would allow Russian forces to regroup and initiate a new military operation. He added, "The only result would be that Russia would recoup its losses and setbacks in Ukraine and launch another attack. We are preparing our brigades for new counter-offensive and defensive actions."
Ukraine's need to rebuild forces
As per Western strategists, the most optimistic scenario involves the coming year being a period that permits the rebuilding of Ukrainian military forces. This is contingent on Ukraine and its allies overcoming current challenges and maintaining soldier support, The Wall Street Journal emphasizes.
Under this scenario, a limited contingent of Ukrainian troops would maintain Russian forces at bay, allowing NATO countries the time to train new Ukrainian soldiers, step up weapons production, and restock Ukrainian supplies.
A drawn-out war
During a recent meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, there was hope expressed that Russia's efforts to penetrate Ukrainian defense will fall short and drain Russia's soldier and ammunition resources. That could enable Ukraine to reassert control on the battlefield by 2025, provided it survives next year, adds the newspaper.
The Wall Street Journal highlights that during the meeting in Brussels, it was noted that early warnings of a protracted conflict were raised during the initial days of full-scale war. Following significant Ukrainian victories, hopes for a swift resolution heightened. However, people need to be reminded that this conflict will be a drawn-out war, stated one European diplomat.
