War teeters on the brink: The dictator mimicking Putin's moves

"The rhetoric of the Venezuelan regime closely resembles the Kremlin's propagandized stance towards Ukraine. Venezuela's President has appointed General Alexis Cabello as the interim authority in the disputed territory of Guyana. This indicates an inclination to reinforce expansionist claims," warns Martin Holland, an American security advisor and international affairs expert based in Colombia.

Holland underscores further similarities with Russia's hybrid tactics in Ukraine. He notes, "The Venezuelan authorities plan to 'bestow Venezuelan citizenship' on the people living in the annexed part of Guyana. The newly claimed territory will be renamed Guyana Esequiba. This process revolves around the rallying cries of 'reclaiming lost lands' and 'halting imperialism'."

From Holland's perspective, in the event of armed conflict, Guyana appears to be outmatched. The Venezuelan army comprises 120,000 soldiers, augmented by paramilitary groups known as "collectives," while Guyana can only muster about 3,400 soldiers.

The disparity extends to armored vehicles as well: Venezuela commands 514 transporters compared to Guyana's six. In terms of aviation? Guyana primarily has civilian aircraft, including Cessna planes and Bell helicopters. In contrast, their imposing neighbor, threatening to annex their territory, boasts a fleet of Russian Su-30 fighters.

A vast portion of the 497-mile border between Venezuela and the Essequibo region features dense, inaccessible jungle, where autonomous military units can operate unhindered. The analyst notes initial incidents at the border where national signs and Guyanese flags were removed, a strategy echoing Putin's "green men" at the outset of the war in Ukraine.

"An incursion by Venezuela into Essequibo, which is part of sovereign Guyana, could spark a wider regional conflict, potentially drawing in Brazil and Colombia," warns Martin Holland.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is a wild card. With elections impending, he's seeking an external enemy to rally Venezuelans around him. This narrative includes territorial disputes with Guyana and a protracted 120-year disagreement over the border. Thus, one cannot rule out military aggression.

There are echoes of Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Donbass region and the ensuing establishment of the unrecognized Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. Recently, a referendum in Venezuela saw 95% of voters backing Maduro's claims for annexing Essequibo territory (2/3 of Guyana's land area).

Unprovoked military aggression would be a high-risk, potentially regime-suicidal move. It reminds us of Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, which led to Operation Desert Storm by coalition forces.

Venezuela lacks the global standing to launch an offensive without eliciting a significant international response. The best they can hope for is for Russia to maintain a neutral stance at the UN Security Council. But the voting power of the United States, United Kingdom, France, and China, who are likely to condemn such a war, should never be underestimated.

Upon gaining independence from Britain in 1970, Guyana's border with Venezuela was determined based on an 1899 international arbitration ruling. However, this was contested by the Venezuelan government after exposing posthumous correspondence among the negotiation participants that suggested one arbitrator, Russia's Fyodor Martens, offered the British 90% of the disputed territory.

Following decades of disagreements, Guyana filed a lawsuit against Venezuela in 2018 at the International Court of Justice, seeking confirmation of the 1899 arbitration. On December 1, 2023, the ICJ ruled that Venezuela should avoid any actions that could alter the status quo of the disputed area. This isn't a verdict yet, but Maduro's regime is apprehensive about a potential defeat, which could result in a national humiliation that would undermine his authority.

Venezuela's stakes for the Essequibo territory in Guyana heightened after American company ExxonMobil discovered oil and gas reserves estimated at 11 billion barrels in the country's maritime zone in 2015. Subsequent exploration concessions were auctioned by Guyana in September.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro also reacted to his neighbor's activities. He mandated that the state oil company PDVSA obtain a drilling license for the disputed maritime territory. Additionally, he pushed for legislation incorporating the maritime zone into Venezuela. The sound economic climate in Guyana, fueled by oil production and mineral exports, propels it to be one of the fastest-growing economies in the region. On the other hand, prolonged economic crises, corruption, and US sanctions have crippled Venezuela's mining industry.