USA bolsters Ukraine with $8 billion aid as presidential term nears end

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States last week. He addressed the UN General Assembly and met with outgoing President Joe Biden, as well as Democratic and Republican presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, ahead of the upcoming election on November 5.

Andrzej Kohut, an American studies expert from the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, assessed it as an attempt to utilize the momentum that Joe Biden's administration in Washington created for the authorities in Kyiv.

He said the trip's primary goal was to present the Ukrainian "victory plan" and persuade the Biden administration to increase American aid to Kyiv. Kohut noted that Washington did not officially respond to the Ukrainian demands, but administration officials did so anonymously through the media.

Unofficial press leaks indicate that the Americans saw the same expectations that Ukraine had previously expressed in a maximalist version, including a quick entry into NATO, the permission to use American missiles to attack targets deep in Russia, and a maximum increase in aid to Kyiv. If we evaluate Zelensky's visit based on the effectiveness of convincing the Americans of the victory plan, Kohut will assess it as likely having no success.

However, Zelensky did not leave Washington empty-handed. President Biden announced that military aid was worth approximately $8 billion for Ukraine. This is all within a package the US Congress passed in April valued at $61 billion.

The latest tranche of aid to Ukraine, worth $8 billion, is funded from two sources. First, it's $5.5 billion under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). This mechanism allows the US president to transfer weapons, equipment, and ammunition already in American military units or warehouses to Ukraine.

Jacek Tarociński, an OSW military analyst, pointed out that the federal government had to act quickly because this opportunity expired at the end of September. That is when the fiscal year ends in the USA, and before Zelensky visited Washington, there was still $5.55 billion to utilize. Since the commencement of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the USA has provided Ukraine with aid worth over $45 billion in this way. Tarociński noted that President Biden delegated the authority to use this package to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, thus avoiding the necessity of spending this money by the end of September.

The second source of aid for Kyiv, announced last week, is $2.4 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). This involves ordering weapons, equipment, and ammunition from the American defense industry. The Pentagon has officially stated that such an order took place. This order mainly includes ammunition for air defense systems like Patriot and NASAMS, unmanned and counter-drone systems, and Tarociński enumerated.

Andrzej Kohut from the OSW observed that, although $2.4 billion is at the Pentagon’s disposal for a year, until the end of September 2025, President Biden pressed for its expenditure by the end of his term, that is, by mid-January.

The Biden administration fears that if a new president takes office in the White House, even if the funds are still available, they might not be used or used in a more limited scope. Hence, Kohut said there is pressure to utilize everything provided in the package passed by Congress in April 2024, totaling $61 billion, by the end of Biden's term.

American analyses suggest that for Ukraine to maintain its engagement in the war, it needs American aid valued between $500 million and $1 billion per month. It's reasonable to assume that the $8 billion directed now should suffice for Ukraine until the end of February, assessed Tarociński.

Meanwhile, the new US president will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. A little earlier, in early January, a new Congress term will begin. This is because, on November 5, Americans will not only elect a new president—elections will also be held for the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate.

Regardless of who will hold the majority in both houses of Congress, polls indicate that it will be small, which means instability and difficulties in passing the next package for Ukraine, as was the case in the ending term, Tarociński pointed out.

Andrzej Kohut notes that the outcome of the presidential election is currently unpredictable. If Harris wins, we can assume she will try to maintain Biden's policy direction. This follows her statements and what was supposed to emerge during her conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky; she even mentioned it during the presidential debate. The question, of course, is whether she will be able to continue Biden's policy, as it requires, for instance, passing more aid packages in Congress, the future composition of which is also unknown, observed the American studies expert from the OSW.

As for the potential administration of Donald Trump, it's hard to have doubts that his declarations aren't just campaign slogans. Looking at what's shaping up in Trump's background and the political plans being written, it seems that a potential Republican administration will try to freeze the conflict as soon as possible and initiate peace negotiations. On one hand, they could leverage pressure on Ukraine by halting financial and military aid. On the other hand, they might take an opposite approach and, for example, threaten the Kremlin with a radical increase in aid to Ukraine if those negotiations don't commence. However, it seems that peace negotiations, in one shape or another, will be the goal that the Republicans set - Kohut believes.

He also pointed out that President Zelensky visited an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania during his visit to the USA. Among Republican voters and politicians, this was widely perceived as Zelensky unequivocally siding with Kamala Harris and the Democrats.

At the beginning of 2024, when the US Congress delayed passing the aid package for Ukraine (eventually adopted in April), the American newspaper "Wall Street Journal" reported that Ukrainians were conserving artillery ammunition because they were uncertain about the timing of the next deliveries. Could such a scenario repeat at the beginning of 2025 when the funds from the tranche announced last week run out and a new administration and power dynamics in Congress take over in Washington? Jacek Tarociński admitted that this could happen.

Ukraine cannot afford risky offensive actions and must remain defensive, emphasized the OSW expert. Furthermore, it must plan its defense long-term due to the uncertainty of future events.

At the meeting with Zelensky, Biden announced that Ukraine would receive another Patriot air defense system battery. - This will be the third such battery. Unlike the previous two, which came from combat units, it is to be sourced from stockpiles. It will comprise older radars, fire control systems, launchers, etc. They will be refurbished in factories, which will likely take some time, plus the training of Ukrainians - said Tarociński. He estimates that this process could take up to six months.

During the NATO summit in Washington in July, President Biden announced that the current production of PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system would be redirected to Kyiv to shorten the delivery time. Now, the White House has approved funds for this purpose. Only now is this materializing; the time between the announcement and the materialization is quite long, Tarociński assessed. Consequently, other US export customers will face delays in Patriot ammunition deliveries. This mainly concerns Switzerland, added the OSW expert.

On Friday, Biden also announced that Ukraine would receive AGM-154 JSOW. These are glide bombs, which are like guided bombs. However, while in US and Allied aviation, guided armaments are usually constructed by adding a guidance kit to a standard aerial bomb, JSOW was built from the ground up to hit targets precisely. It has guidance devices and small foldable wings but lacks propulsion, so it approaches the target like a glider.

Two out of three versions of JSOW carry cluster munitions, meaning they release many smaller bombs over area targets such as air defense assemblies, troop concentrations, or ammunition depots. The third version of JSOW, equipped with a penetrating warhead, is suitable for destroying enemy fortifications.

The range of JSOW is up to 80 miles, provided the bomb is dropped from a high altitude. However, Ukrainians do not fly at high altitudes because the Russians have developed air defenses—both ground-based and their own aviation in the air. As a result, the JSOW range will be quite limited, Tarociński noted.

JSOW hasn’t been produced since 2005. In US aviation, it was replaced by the AGM-158 JASSM missiles, which have a longer range. Nevertheless, he assessed that JSOW is a good weapon and is certainly much cheaper to use than JASSM.

What about the longer-range weapons that the Ukrainians have been increasingly requesting? - It is evident that President Biden has not decided to provide the longer-range missiles that the Ukrainians have been seeking - neither the JASSM types nor the ATACMS for the HIMARS ground launchers. In the case of ATACMS, Ukraine received older missiles with a range of 112 miles but not the latest versions with a range of 186 miles. Everything will depend on the next administration, Tarociński said.

After his conversation with Zelensky, Biden also announced that Americans would train 18 Ukrainian pilots for F-16 fighter aircraft. According to Tarociński, this is simultaneously a lot and a little.

As he explained, it is a big effort for Americans because the US armed forces conduct pilot training for many allied and partner countries, and their training capabilities are already quite limited due to infrastructure and instructor shortages. The fact that they will train 18 Ukrainian pilots means that 18 pilots from other countries or US air forces won't be able to be trained simultaneously, he explained.

At the same time, Tarociński said that 18 pilots are not much from a Ukrainian perspective. - Ukraine needs to train at least one and a half, preferably two pilots for each offered F-16, which means that 18 pilots will allow for the operational use of 12 aircraft. Ukraine has received only a few F-16s, but this number will grow over time. Pilots also die - we have already reported the first machine loss and the death of the pilot - he reminded.

Ukrainian pilot training is conducted by Americans, the French, and the British, who train Ukrainians from scratch. A training center has also been established in Romania. The OSW expert believes that combining all these efforts will likely meet the Ukrainian needs, although not as quickly as Kyiv might want or expect.

Last week, the White House announced that on October 12, President Biden would host a high-level meeting of the Ramstein Group in Germany, in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also participate. The Ramstein Group, established in response to Russia's invasion, is an alliance of over 50 countries and organizations that developed a mechanism for regular military aid to Ukraine in weapon deliveries, soldier training, and equipment repairs.