Unlocking earthquake secrets: New research sparks prediction hope
Researchers have discovered the "ignition" mechanism of earthquakes, and their latest findings were published in "Nature." They believe that understanding the slow movements of tectonic plates preceding these extreme events could help predict earthquakes.
Scientists have explored the hidden mechanism that triggers the "ignition" of earthquakes. Their latest findings are detailed in the scientific journal "Nature." They propose that a period of slow, creeping movement without tremors may be a necessary precursor to seismic shocks. This discovery sheds new light on these catastrophic phenomena' fundamental mechanisms and opens potential ways to predict them.
Laboratory experiments reveal the physics of fractures
Research led by physicist Jay Fineberg from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem focused on fractures in sheets of plastic under laboratory conditions. Although these materials differ from the rocks that make up the Earth's crust, the experiments help explain the basic principles of physics regarding fracture formation by transforming friction into a sudden split at the junction of two surfaces.
Earthquakes occur when tectonic plates moving against each other become locked and stresses along the fault increase. Fineberg explains that these plates are subjected to growing forces but are held in place by a rigid part of the boundary that separates them, which eventually breaks. The process does not happen immediately—an initial fracture must form. Once it reaches the limits of the brittle zone, it accelerates and leads to strong ground vibrations.
From slow "creeping" to sudden fracture
The mystery was how this initially slow process transforms into rapid fracturing. The research team discovered that a so-called nucleation front, an initial fracture, develops slowly in the zone between tectonic plates before fracturing occurs. Although these fronts move slowly and don't release much energy, they expand over time, and the energy needed for further fracturing increases with the area of the fracture.
Ultimately, additional energy seeps in when the fracture extends beyond the brittle zone, leading to sudden and violent displacement. Fineberg notes that understanding aseismic movement could enable earthquake prediction. His team is currently studying how such movement transforms into seismic activity in the laboratory, which could aid in future forecasts to warn of earthquakes based on early signs.
The potential for earthquake prediction
Fineberg and his team are conducting laboratory research to identify indicators of the shift from aseismic to seismic movement. The researcher explained that their work might uncover insights that are impossible to obtain from real fault lines, as detailed information about earthquake activity often becomes available only after the event occurs.
These discoveries demonstrate how slowly creeping before a fracture can rapidly become an earthquake. Theoretically, if aseismic movement before a fracture could be measured—perhaps on a fault or even in a mechanical structure like an airplane wing—it would be possible to predict the fracture before it happens.
The discovery of earthquakes' hidden "ignition" mechanism represents a breakthrough in understanding these catastrophic events. The potential to predict earthquakes opens new perspectives for safeguarding lives and infrastructure.
