Ukrainians risk everything to escape forced conscription
The border guard is avoiding answering the question about the motivations of Ukrainians who, according to the latest data, are attempting to enter Poland illegally. This occurs even across the green border and with false documents. Experts assess that these could be individuals fleeing mobilization and deserters.
In 2023, this phenomenon was almost non-existent. However, in a report for 2024, the Polish border guard reported that several hundred Ukrainians were detained attempting to illegally cross the border into Poland. Let's remember that personal movement between Poland and Ukraine is visa-free. In 2024, 8.5 million people crossed the border from Ukraine into Poland, and a similar number crossed in the other direction.
According to the latest SG report, 13,600 Ukrainian citizens were denied entry. The statistics did not provide specific reasons for the refusals.
Last year, more than 640 Ukrainian citizens were detained for illegally crossing the Polish-Ukrainian border. The majority—470 individuals—were stopped at official border crossings, while nearly 180 were apprehended outside designated points. Most of them used falsified or fraudulently obtained documents, according to information provided to WP by Lt. Col. Andrzej Juźwiak, spokesperson for the Chief of the Border Guard.
In 2023, 176 Ukrainian citizens attempted to illegally enter Poland.
Who are the desperate individuals trying to illegally escape from Ukraine? The SG spokesperson did not directly answer the question about the motivation of the foreigners. We asked directly if Ukrainians risking the green border crossing could be individuals escaping mobilization.
Each situation is assessed on a case-by-case basis, with officers responding according to the specific circumstances, Lt. Col. Juźwiak stated.
Crisis in Ukraine's army. "They flee because there is no other option"
According to Prof. Daniel Boćkowski, a security expert at the University of Białystok, Ukrainians choosing illegal ways to leave the country are likely men escaping mobilization. Ukrainian authorities have prohibited conscription-aged men aged 25-60 from leaving the country.
The expert comments that the chance of these men leaving Ukrainian territory normally is almost zero. Hence, they chose an illegal route.
Ukraine is facing a shortage of infantry, and allies are highlighting the army's lack of reserve personnel. Western countries are pressuring Ukraine to lower the mobilization age, while Ukrainian authorities are increasing control measures, effectively conducting street round-ups for men. Describing the situation, the source explains that many flee because they have no choice.
Professor Boćkowski highlights that the Russian army is advancing on the eastern Ukrainian front. Even with a five-to-one loss ratio in Russia’s favor, Ukrainian soldiers on the ground face the harsh reality of being in the trenches, forced to repel attacks. As a result, the number of people fleeing to Poland, including deserters, is expected to rise. Meanwhile, frustration and criticism toward frontline command in Ukraine continue to grow, he concludes.
We recently reported that President Donald Trump's National Security Advisor Mike Waltz suggested that the lower age limit for conscription should be 18 years old. According to him, this decision could help stabilize the frontline situation, as Ukraine struggles with serious personnel shortages.
Ukrainian experts warn that while the country has Western-supplied weapons, equipment, and ammunition, the real challenge lies in the decreasing number of people willing to fight. This, they stress, is the core of the crisis—a deep-rooted social issue that cannot be resolved simply by changing frontline commanders. War veteran Yevhen Dyky emphasizes that this fundamental problem remains unchanged.
Who is fleeing Ukraine?
Since the beginning of the war until the fall of 2023, nearly 20,000 men fled Ukraine to avoid conscription, and another 21,000 tried but were detained by border services - according to findings of the BBC and the Ukrainian portal TSN. The most popular escape routes were Romania, Moldova, and Slovakia, with Poland being only a subsequent choice. Ukrainian politicians commented that 95% of citizens are ready to defend the country against Russian aggression, meaning escapes are not crucial for defense.
14,300 Ukrainians tried to cross the border on foot or by swimming, while the remaining 6,800 relied on documents obtained fraudulently, including fake exemptions from conscription, such as fabricated illnesses - officials confirmed.
The country's authorities announced a crackdown on corruption in military qualification commissions, which led to a tenfold increase in conscription exemptions. Those caught trying to escape face fines and up to eight years in prison. It is unknown whether military refugees will be penalized if they return in the future.
