Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries could slash oil production

Ukrainian shelling of refineries in Russia could disrupt approximately 15 percent of these plants' production capacity, according to a report by Reuters on Thursday, citing an anonymous NATO representative. This representative highlighted that Russia is beginning to experience an ammunition shortage.

"Regarding the damage, the shelling likely disrupted over 10, maybe even more than 15 percent, of the production capacity of Russian refineries. Repairs could be significantly time-consuming depending on the extent of the damage," said the NATO representative.

He also mentioned that "increasingly fewer such energy infrastructure and critical facilities in Russia remain safe." Despite this, Russian officials have assured Reuters that the damaged refineries will return to normal operations by early June.

The same NATO spokesperson expressed that due to heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia is recruiting approximately 30,000 individuals monthly. Despite having a significant advantage over Ukraine regarding ammunition, manpower, and equipment, a considerable breakthrough on the front lines seems improbable in the short term.

In his view, without another large-scale mobilization, no significant offensive operation could be possible. He added a note on Russia's ammunition shortage.

In March, both the Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) and Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) confirmed strikes on refineries in several locations including, but not limited to, Sloviansk in the Krasnodar Territory, Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov region, and others in Ryazan, Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod region, and Kirishi in the Leningrad region.

Media reports from Russia and Ukraine have also covered air raids on refineries in Syzran and Novokuibyshevsk in the Samara region, along with a fire near a thermal power plant in Petersburg.

Thomas O'Donnell, an energy expert at the American think tank Wilson Center, recently assessed that "the recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries reveal Ukraine's capacity to threaten Russian oil exports via ports in Primorsk and Novorossiysk."

O’Donnell recollected "Financial Times" reports stating the United States has frequently urged Ukraine to cease drone attacks on Russian refineries.

"The reasons include concerns about potential Russian retaliation against Western energy infrastructure and the possibility of spiraling gasoline prices - something every president aims to avoid in an election year," explained the analyst.

However, he believes these concerns are largely baseless.

"First and foremost, the USA has consistently supported Ukraine's right to target sites in Russia on the condition that American-made weapons are not used. This criterion has been met: the drones are not of US origin. Although Putin could retaliate against NATO's energy infrastructures, it would pose a substantial risk for Moscow," assessed O'Donnell.

"What about the impact on oil and refined product prices? Ukraine targets oil refineries, not the export infrastructure. By striking refineries, the production of diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel for the Russian war economy and its forces in Ukraine is reduced. If Russia is unable to refine this oil - which isn’t being exported in the first place - its production may halt, but it wouldn't cut exports or cause price hikes," he emphasized.

"So, what truly worries Washington? The recent attacks have demonstrated Ukraine's potential to also strike at ports through which Russian oil is exported, potentially disrupting a significant portion of Russia's oil exports. This scenario is what genuinely concerns Washington," he noted.