Ukrainian perspective: How many troops does Putin need?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to bolster the Russian army by an additional 170,000 personnel. A Ukrainian politician has provided calculations regarding the number of new soldiers Russia needs annually to cover the losses on the front line. The figures are startling.

As the Kremlin announced on Friday, President Vladimir Putin has ratified a decree setting the manpower of the Russian Federation's Armed Forces at 2,209,130, including 1,320,000 soldiers. Furthermore, Putin has authorized the Russian government to assign federal budget funds to the Russian Ministry of Defense, as necessary to execute the decree.

The Russian Ministry of Defense justifies the augmented manpower by attributing it to "the rise in threats to the Russian Federation linked to the Northern Military District and ongoing NATO expansion". This narrative is a part of a perplexing rhetoric that portrays Russia's incursion into Ukraine as a war "initiated by NATO".

Anton Herashchenko, an advisor to the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, highlighted the toll on Russian soldiers during the conflict in Ukraine on his profile on platform X (formerly Twitter).

"Assuming that the average number of fatalities and serious injuries is around 15,000 per month (these figures may have escalated to 30,000 in recent months due to the ferocious and tactically flawed assault on Avdiivka), a simple calculation reveals that 160-200,000 additional Russians need to be recruited every year to replace those lost to death or severe injuries," Herashchenko estimates.

Given the current situation on the front line, casualties are destined to increase, necessitating the recruitment of another 70-80,000 personnel to reinforce reserves.

Overall, according to the most conservative estimates, it's expected that in 2024, at least 400,000 people will be mobilized; a figure mirroring that of 2023.

"Whether announced through formal mobilization or through random arrests on the street, next year, another 400,000 men will be led to their deaths, all for another Avdiivka. This is something we need to emphasize," asserts the Ukrainian politician.