Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region puts Russia on the defensive

John R. Deni, a professor at the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College and a war analyst, is convinced that the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region will not end quickly. Despite losing significant amounts of equipment, the risks taken may yield the expected benefits for the Ukrainians.

The American expert believes that the operation in the Kursk region will be considered long-term. Ukraine, despite problems in areas such as Donbas, decided to create a new front line, hoping to strengthen its position in the "non-existent peace talks" and encourage the West to provide more assistance. It may also be an attempt to draw Russian units, which have been operating in Donbas and the Zaporizhia region, to this new front, effectively halting the invaders' advance on Ukrainian territories.

"It’s possible, although not yet certain, that the Kursk offensive is not merely an opportunistic gambit but rather part of a broader military campaign that could stretch well into 2025, purposefully setting the stage for operations elsewhere," writes John R. Deni in his column quoted by the Unian agency.

Western military estimates, cited by Unian, suggest that Ukraine has sent about 6,000 soldiers to the Kursk region, with an additional 4,000 soldiers stationed as support in the Sumy region. According to "The Wall Street Journal," the Russians must move more than 20,000 of their soldiers to defense to halt the Ukrainian offensive.

The Ukrainians' progress, however, comes with significant losses. American media, citing data reported by one of the Oryx analysts, believe that Ukrainians are losing twice as many armored vehicles as the defending Russians.

The list of lost equipment primarily includes armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, and tanks.

Photos appearing on social media confirm losses related, for example, to American Stryker armored personnel carriers. These carriers can transport up to nine soldiers and attack the enemy with a Browning M2 .50 caliber machine gun with a range of about 1 mile and a Mk 19 40mm grenade launcher.

The Russians also destroyed at least one Polish PT-91 Twardy tank involved in the offensive, likely a victim of a Lancet-3 drone. The PT-91 Twardy is a comprehensive modernization of the Soviet T-72, equipped with a better engine and ERAWA reactive armor. The list of equipment lost by Ukrainians also includes Soviet BMP family armored personnel carriers, original T-72s, and German Marder infantry fighting vehicles.

According to Philip Wasielewski, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute think tank and a former CIA officer, the Ukrainian operation has both propaganda and army significance.

"Of course, this offensive is a major blow to Putin's image, a significant boost to Ukrainian morale, and resulted in the capture of hundreds, if not over a thousand, prisoners who will be useful. But what many commentators do not notice is that through this move, Ukraine has turned the conflict back into a maneuver war, where the Ukrainian military has the advantage," assessed Philip Wasielewski.