Ukrainian intelligence targets Russian military elite in daring strikes

On Monday, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) released a statement identifying General Igor Kirillov as the person responsible for authorizing the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian soldiers. Gen. Kirillov was the commander of the Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces of the Russian Armed Forces. He was allegedly responsible for nearly 4,800 attacks.

By Tuesday, he was already dead—killed after a bomb hidden in an electric scooter exploded. His aide, Major Ilya Polikarpov, also died in the attack. According to the Russians, the attack was carried out by a 29-year-old resident of Uzbekistan, who was arrested on Wednesday. The Russian authorities (FSB) state that the suspect admitted to being "recruited by Ukrainian special services."

Following the attack, Ukrainian officials confirmed in unofficial discussions with global agencies that they had indeed targeted and killed a Russian general in Moscow. A source within the Ukrainian services (quoted by the BBC) described the general as a "legitimate target" for the attack because, according to Ukrainian claims, he was a war criminal who had personally authorized the use of chemical weapons.

The Kremlin and Russian propagandists have largely tried to portray Kirillov's murder as an unprovoked act of terrorism rather than a response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, attempted to placate ultranationalist factions by stating that the Russian military would retaliate by targeting Ukraine's military-political leadership.

This is not the first recent incident where a high-ranking Russian military official has died in an attack. On November 13 in Sevastopol, Valery Trankovsky, the chief of staff of the 41st Missile Ship Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, was killed. His car exploded on a street in Sevastopol after a bomb hidden under the driver's seat was detonated.

Recently, Sergey Yevsukov, the head of the Olenivka penal colony, was also killed. In 2022, many Ukrainian prisoners, including Mariupol and Azovstal defenders, were detained there. In December, it was disclosed that Mikhail Shatsky, deputy head of the Experimental Mars Design Bureau and head of its software department, had died. He had been responsible for developing the control system of the Kh-69 cruise missile, which was used in attacks on Ukraine.

"This indicates the professional and precise actions of Ukrainian services on Russian territory, right under Putin's nose. The SBU is conducting what are known as targeted killings, meaning 'selective elimination.' These are planned actions aimed at eliminating specific individuals," says retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj, a former Military Intelligence Service officer and an analyst specializing in security issues, to Wirtualna Polska.

He adds that besides personnel operations, Ukrainian services also conduct intelligence operations with specific goals, such as targeting ammunition and weapon storage or military airports.

"Ukraine can conduct such operations on Russian soil, and Russia lacks the means to stop them. This situation does not reflect well on Putin's services. The Russian FSB is caught off-guard because they haven't dealt with such actions before. It's one thing to track and prevent a terrorist group's attack, but it's another to combat Ukrainian intelligence operations penetrating Russian territory. These are delicate and precise endeavors," comments Korowaj.

According to Marcin Faliński, a former officer of the Intelligence Agency and author of several books, Ukrainian services may find it easier to carry out such operations on Russian soil due to an extensive network of contacts and longstanding family ties between the two societies.

"Despite the ongoing war, the connections between Russian and Ukrainian societies remain strong. The officers killed served long in the Russian army and may have had relationships with individuals from Ukraine. There could be family, school, or career-related connections from the past. Consequently, reaching them by Ukrainian services is easier than it would be in another country," claims Marcin Faliński.

In his assessment, if Kyiv is indeed behind the series of attacks, it is the work of two intelligence services: the SBU, Ukraine's internal service, and the HUR, Ukrainian military intelligence. "Unlike in the Kremlin, where there are frictions between various services, these two share a common purpose, namely the war and the aim of hitting the opponent as hard as possible," says Faliński.

"On the other hand, the Russian FSB, which failed to monitor the actions of Ukrainian services on Russian territory, may no longer enjoy Putin's full trust. The FSB was instrumental in advocating for the offensive, convinced it was sufficiently prepared for the invasion. They invested considerable resources and pressured the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Gerasimov, to attack. This led to Putin's later fury," reminds Faliński.

Retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj believes that an entire operational team of Ukrainian services meticulously plans attacks on Russian territory. "They don’t execute these in just one day or with a single hired individual. The FSB missed the signs, which doesn’t reflect well on Russia. And this is not the end of such actions; expect more to come," predicts retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj.

Marcin Faliński highlights yet another aspect:

"We can never rule out internal disputes or actions by Russian services and decisions made by Putin himself. We've seen businessmen mysteriously fall out of windows, so it's conceivable that military figures may also find themselves on the wrong side of Kremlin politics. Russia is a complicated place, and it's easiest for them to blame Ukraine," summarizes Faliński.